2021 Great Morstaybishlia General Election

2021 Great Morstaybishlia general election

1 April 2021
All 1,794 seats to the Folk's Hall 898 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	226,342,016
First party Second party Third party   Leader Franklin Barvata Benjamin Wardola Osbourne Saudaran Party Progress Principles Civic Leader since 31 August 2017 11 February 2020 9 May 2020 Leader's seat Cavenhelm Belver Coast and Ruthdon Drunningsham, Celidizia Last election 910 seats, 50.7% 655 seats, 36.5% 147 seats, 8.1% Seats won 863 600 205 Seat change 47 55 58 Popular vote 77,141,695 63,959,757 52,039,557 Percentage 34.08% 28.26% 22.99% Swing 2.17 pp 1.03 pp 3.80 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Romilda von Anzitter Arran Samsey Nancy Smith Party MARIP JUP Liberal Leader since 23 September 2020 28 February 2021 4 February 2013 Last election 6 seats, 0.3% 33 seats, 1.8% 27 seats, 1.5% Seats won 89 15 14 Seat change 83 18 13 Popular vote 7,926,159 1,777,670 9,573,265 Percentage 3.50% 0.79% 4.23% Swing 3.08 pp 0.48 pp 0.67 pp   Seventh party Eighth party   Leader Hemi Toa Lucia Malim Party Jūs Herekore Greens Leader since 29 December 2018 2 July 2018 Last election 5 seats, 0.2% 11 seats, 0.6% Seats won 6 2 Seat change 1 9 Popular vote 575,129 6,874,855 Percentage 0.25% 3.04% Swing 0.03 pp 4.11 pp
Composition of the Folk's Hall after the election
Prime Minister before election Franklin Barvata Progress Appointed Prime Minister Franklin Barvata Progress

The 2021 Great Morstaybishlia general election was held on Thursday, 1 April 2021, two years after the previous general election in 2019. It was triggered following the Progress Party loosing their working majority.

The Progress Party, which had led as a single-party majority government from 2019, was defending its overall majority of 6 seats after Prime Minister Franklin Barvata removed the Whip from 6 Valerian Progress MPs. The official opposition was led by Benjamin Wardola.

Barvata lost his working majority after members of his party voted against an amendment to the Anti-Terrorism Act 2020 following the 2021 Joralesian attacks on 8 March 2021. Barvata put an early election to the Folk's Hall but it was defeated. He attempted to reconvene his working majority with a second amendment to the Anti-Terrorism Act 2020 but it was again defeated, this time by only 2 votes. Under the Fixed-term Sammings Act 1999 an election had not been due until February 2026, but following the string of vote defeats Barvata circumvented the operation of ordinary electoral law by passing the Early Samming General Election Act 2021 which only required a normal majority and which passed 1139-64.

The governing Progress Party remained the largest single party in the Folk's Hall but lost its small overall majority, instead relying on an 11 seat working majority after a net loss of 47. A total of 54 MPs within the Progress Party identified with the Valerian Progress faction and Barvata signed a special arrangement with their leader, Nellie Hermin, on the basis that South Staynes be allowed three votes; one for independence, and if that failed, one to hold a name referendum and another for a devolution referendum. Progress lost seats in the Marislia region but gained many seats in Jusdelva for the first time. The Principles won 600 seats, their lowest since the 1998 general election. The Marislian Independence Party (MARIP) made a net gain of 83 seats and won 3.5% of the MBE (translating to 39.45% of the popular vote in Marislia), resulting in 89 out of 155 seats won in Marislia. The Civic Party improved their vote share to 22.9% and won 205 seats, a net gain of 58 since the last election and the most amount of seats they have held since 2005. The Liberal Party won 14 seats, a net loss of 13 seats. The Greens lost 9 of their 11 seats that they gained and entered the Samming with for the first time in 2019.

The Jusdelvic Unionist Party (JUP) won 15 of their 33 seats, facing losses to all three major parties, all of which seats won from metropolitan Morstaybishlian parties for the first time. The election saw a trend where minor parties saw decline, besides both the MARIP, which gained the most seats of any independence party in any general election in Morstaybishlian history; and Jūs Herekore which gained one seat in the Western Outliers Provinces. Due to MARIP being abstentionist and winning 89 seats, the working majority was significantly less than working majorities of the past, allowing Progress to govern without a coalition. This polarisation of seats to the bigger parties has been put down to several crises that has hit the MBE since early 2020, including the 2020 Puntalian Crisis, July and August Kaltariezh terrorist attacks, the 2020 Aegis independence crisis and the 2021 Joralesian attacks. For the MARIP leader, Romilda von Anzitter, her party's landslide victory in the Marislian region led to calls for an independence referendum, to which the Progress Party had expressed its opposition before and during the election. Although nationalist MPs outnumbered union oriented ones for the first time in history, the unionist popular vote remained higher (60.5 percent). The Speaker of the Folk's Hall Baron Munchiro was re-elected on Monday 5 April 2021.

Date of the election

The deadline for candidate nominations was 18 March 2021, with political campaigning for two weeks until polling day on 1 April. On the day of the election, polling stations across the country were open from 7 am, and closed at 10 pm.

Voting eligibility

Individuals eligible to vote had to be registered to vote by midnight on the 26th of March 2021. To be eligible to vote, individuals had to be aged 18 or over; residing as a citizen at an address in Great Morstaybishlia, or a Morstaybishlian citizen overseas who registered to vote in the last 15 years; and not legally excluded (on grounds of detainment in prison, a mental hospital, or on the run from law enforcement) or disqualified from voting. Anyone who qualified as an anonymous elector had until midnight on the 29th of March 2021 to register.

Contesting political parties and candidates

Most candidates are representatives of a political party, which must be registered with the Electoral Commission's Register. Those who do not belong to one must use the label "Independent" or none. In the 2019 election 9,654 candidates stood: 1,709 being independents, the rest representing one of 199 political parties.

Great Morstaybishlia

Party		Party leader(s)	Leader since	Leader's seat	2019 election		Seats at dissolution	Contested seats
					% of votes	Seats
	Progress Party	Franklin Barvata	August 2019	Cavenhelm	36.3%	910	904	1,722
	Principles of Democracy Party	Benjamin Wardola	February 2020	Belver Coast and Ruthdon	29.3%	655	655	1,716
	Civic Party	Osbourne Saudaran	May 2020	Drunningsham, Celidizia	19.2%	147	147	1,044
	MARIP	Romilda von Anzitter	September 2020	Stalzag	0.4%	6	6	155
	Liberal Party	Nancy Smith	February 2013	Karagow, Rouanezkador	4.9%	27	27	553
	Green Party	Lucia Malim	July 2018	Velsh Forrest Region	7.1%	11	11	553

Jusdelva

Party		Party leader(s)	Leader since	Leader's seat	2019 election		Seats at dissolution	Contested seats (Out of 52)
					% of votes (In JUS)	Seats
	JUP	Arran Samsey	February 2021	Dostega	35.65%	33	33	42
	Principles Party	Benjamin Wardola	February 2020	Belver Coast and Ruthdon	19.01%	10	10	19
	Civic Party	Osbourne Saudaran	May 2020	Drunningsham, Celidizia	16.31%	6	6	49
	Jūs Herekore	Hemi Toa	December 2016	None	6.54%	5	5	11
	Progress Party	Franklin Barvata	August 2019	Cavenhelm	20.80%	5	5	42

Campaign

Donations to political parties in
last quarter of 2020

Party	Donations (♅ millions)
Principles	270.88
Civic	164.78
Progress	143.59
MARIP	99.41
Liberals	22.33
Unionists	6.24

Campaign background

Since 1991 both the Progress and Principles parties have been the two biggest political parties, and have supplied every Prime Minister since then. The Progress Party had governed since the 2019 general election. In 2020 the Progress government established Black Alert over Dalmaghar and the Marislian region, and in March 2021 over Joralesia, the latter two were ill-received in their respective areas. Following the 2020 Aegis independence crisis where 5 Progress MPs requested the government respect the Aegis Area Agreement 1977, which Prime Minister Franklin Barvata denied due to it being invalid. They were removed from the Whip following rebelling against legislation and the absolute majority was reduced to 904. When Barvata attempted to amend the Anti-Terrorism Act 2020 following the 2021 Joralesian riots, it was received poorly, including from members of his own party. After two failed amendments and one failed early general election, a second passed under legislation that bypassed the Fixed-term Samming Act 1999 by only requiring a normal majority.

During the lifespan of the 2019 Samming, only 12 MPs left their party, mainly due to dispute with the leadership. 5 MPs left the Progress Party and formed the Aegis Recognition Party. 4 MPs left the Principles Party and formed the Reform for Marislia Party. 3 MPs left the Unionists and became independents following an affair scandal with their chairperson MP Kassie Conbrie.

Party positions in the event of a hung Samming

The Principles and Progress both insisted they were on course for outright majorities, and the Civics insisted they would be in a far better position than they were in the 2019 general election. The Civics said that they would not support Franklin Barvata as the next Prime Minister but could come to an 'arrangement' with Principles leader Benjamin Wardola in the case of a hung Samming.

The Unionists said they would seek out a formal coalition with the Principles if they won. Jūs Herekore spoke about a possible confidence and supply arrangement with Progress if they supposed a Western Outliers Provinces independence referendum. The abstentionist MARIP refused to take seats in the Samming and thus refused to answer their stance in a hung Samming.

The Greens initially supported the Progress Party, but withdrew their support following Progress's stance on Joralesia in March 2021. Principles leader Benjamin Wardola said that he would not persue a coalition with other parties because he was 'intending to win'. Barvata and the Progress Party made no official comments, but the First Secretary Riannar Karmer said he 'can't see a situation where we would need to form a coalition'.

Tactical voting

Under the first-past-the-post electoral system, voter turn-out (especially in marginal seats) has a crucial impact on the final election outcome, so major political parties disproportionately focus on opinion poll trends and these constituencies. In the early stages of the campaign, there was considerable discussion of tactical voting (generally in the context of support or opposition to the Anti-Terrorism Act amendment) and whether parties would stand in all seats or not. The possibility for a third proposed amendment that would pass should Progress win a working majority was very controversial. The Principles and Civic Party came to an electoral pact against Progress in over four hundred seats. The Principles and Unionists made a pact against Progress where they would not overlap in their seats.

A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the Progress one. The websites did not always give the same advice, which was widely exposed by mainstream media.

Online campaigning

The use of social media advertising is seen as particularly useful to political parties as they can target people by gender, age, and location. The Civics had the favour of the news and is reported to have the most interactions, going above both Progress and the Principles, though Progress managed to receive the most support from younger people.

Black Alert and the Joralesian terrorist attacks were the most trending topic for the top three parties, with over 45 percent of each party's online campaigning evolving around that. Next followed was the environment and taxation, as well as defence.

The Greens were very open to cooperation with other Green parties across Aurora, and campaigned with heavy focus on socio-environmental aspects.

Television debates

MBC aired a head-to-head election debate between Franklin Barvata and Benjamin Wardola on 27 March, hosted by Zoetta Ball. On 28 March STV aired a debate featuring representatives from Progress, the Principles, the Civics, Liberals and Greens. JNS aired a debate with the competing Jusdelvic parties on 26th and 30th March, but Arran Samsey cancelled his interview on the same day due to a change of schedule.

Opinion polling

Predictions two weeks before the vote

Parties		Election Forecast as of 18 March 2021	Electoral Calculus as of 13 March 2021	Lord Vantis as of 18 March 2021	Elections Etc. as of 16 March 2021	Complex as of 15 March 2021
	Progress	1002	897	947	1037	981
	Principles Party	597	671	668	552	555
	Civic Party	97	196	85	95	169
	Unionist Party	9	8	9	9	10
	Liberal Party	31	2	29	34	36
	Green Party	7	7	7	6	7
	MARIP	45	6	43	55	30
	Jūs Herekore	6	6	6	6	6
	Others	0	1	0	0	0
Overall result (absolute majority)		Progress (maj. 210)	Progress (maj. 0)	Progress (maj. 100)	Progress (maj. 280)	Progress (maj. 168)

Predictions one week before the vote

Parties		Election Forecast as of 25 March 2021	Electoral Calculus as of 22 March 2021	Lord Vantis as of 20 March 2021	Elections Etc. as of 23 March 2021	Complex as of 25 March 2021
	Progress	935	877	894	970	902
	Principles Party	701	676	730	638	609
	Civic Party	67	173	64	68	178
	Unionist Party	15	15	15	15	16
	Liberal Party	26	25	25	26	29
	Green Party	7	7	5	6	7
	MARIP	37	15	55	65	47
	Jūs Herekore	6	6	6	6	16
	Others	0	0	0	0	0
Overall result (absolute majority)		Progress (maj. 76)	Hung Samming (Progress 25 seats short)	Progress (maj. -6)	Progress (maj. 146)	Progress (maj. 10)

Predictions one day before the vote

Parties		Election Forecast as of 31 March 2021	Electoral Calculus as of 29 March 2021	Lord Vantis as of 27 March 2021	Elections Etc. as of 30 March 2021	Complex as of 27 March 2021
	Progress	978	802	905	1015	889
	Principles Party	582	725	658	528	594
	Civic Party	114	192	109	123	200
	Unionist Party	14	12	15	12	15
	Liberal Party	25	0	25	27	22
	Green Party	1	4	3	0	4
	MARIP	74	53	73	83	67
	Jūs Herekore	6	6	6	6	14
	Others	0	0	0	0	0
Overall result (absolute majority)		Progress # (maj. 162)	Cons.-Dems. (maj. 40)	Progress (maj. 16)	Progress (maj. 236)	Progress (maj. -9)

Predictions on polling day

The MBE's first-past-the-post electoral system means that national shares of the vote do not give an exact indicator of how the various parties will be represented in the Samming. Different commentators and pollsters currently provide a number of predictions, based on polls and other data, as to how the parties will be represented in the Samming:

Parties		Election Forecast as of 1 April 2021	Electoral Calculus as of 1 April 2021
	Progress	863	832
	Principles Party	600	575
	Civic Party	205	237
	Unionist Party	15	22
	Liberal Party	14	34
	Green Party	2	8
	MARIP	89	55
	Jūs Herekore	6	6
	Others	0	0
Overall result (absolute majority)		Progress (maj. -68)	Hung Samming (Progress 35 seats short)

Results

Results for all constituencies were reported by the morning after the election. The Progress Party remained the largest single party in terms of seats and votes but lost the absolute majority it had previously held. Due to extraordinary circumstances, the election did not result in a hung Samming as the seats lost by Progress were balanced by MARIP gaining seats, and therefore held onto a working majority.

308 seats that had changed parties at the 2019 election changed parties again in 2021. 49 of these seats returned the candidate from the party that had held the seat in 2012. A third party took 99 of these seats: 83 were MARIP gains from from Progress and Principles in Marislia.

In Staynes, Kaltariezh and South Staynes both Progress and the Principles made a net loss of seats, the first time that had happened to both parties since the 1956 general election. The Civics made net gains in all three countries. Marislia saw the biggest gain of any independence party since the 1960s. Lucia Malim and Aria Stemp were the only two of eleven Green MPs who retained their seats. The Liberals lost a total of 13 seats, and majorities in its remaining seats were greatly reduced. High profile losses include the seat of former Secretary of State for Defence Nickolas Frost, who was the longest Defence Secretary ever from 2010 to 2019; former Civic Party leader Jess Ghentley-Moss. The former Civic leader Paddy Lukamortz had his constituency majority greatly reduced to 0.4 percent.

In Jusdelva, the Unionists lost 18 seats, their worse election since they entered the Samming in 2019. This was mainly due to tactical voting in Jusdelva. Progress and the Civics made the most significant gains there and was the only one of four countries where Progress and the Principles made net gains. Jūs Herekore made a net gain of one seat and won the vote of nearly 70,000 people. Since MARIP won 89 seats, they confirmed it would continue its abstentionist policy, leaving no Marislian nationalist representation in the Folk's Hall.

Reform MBE failed to win any seats despite its vote share increasing. They came second in three constituencies in Sani Bursil, contesting against only Progress candidates.

Analysis

The result was noted for decreased vote shares for Progress (down 2.1 percentage points) and the Principles (down 1 percentage point). The Civics had a large increase of vote shares (up 3.8 percentage points) and themselves accounting for a 22.9% share of the vote. The top three parties held a combined 85.1% share of the vote, up from 84.8% in 2019. The result suggested this indicated a return of three-party politics caused by tactical voting. Over two hundred thousand more people registered and voted compared to 2019, with a higher turnout among younger voters. The swing to the Civics were high in those seats with large numbers of young people, and the party did the best at appealing the working-class.

Between 22% and 28% of voters said they were trying to prevent a victory by the party they liked least, i.e. voting tactically. Recommendation by tactical voting websites had some benefit for Civics candidates.

The new Samming reportedly had the highest number of openly LGBT MPs in the world, with 137 Progress MPs, 104 Principles MPs, 61 Civic MPs and 3 Unionist MPs. For the first time the majority of elected Civic and MARIP MPs were female.