Northern Waters Dispute

Crab Wars
	Part of the Northern Waters Dispute
	; A Cryrian net cutter used during the Crab Wars, now display in the Tynam Naval Museum
Date	1930-1947
Location	Duchy of Tynam, Kapan Autonomy
Result	Inconclusive, First Yeralik Crisis
Belligerents
Älemsi Negdel	Kingdom of Cryria
Casualties and losses
16 patrol vessels and trawlers damaged 2 trawlermen wounded	5 patrol vessels damaged 1 crewmember killed

Battle of Kärtu
	Part of the Khulan Reclamation
	; Location of Kärtu on the Arm of Khulan
Date	13 June, 1923
Location	Kärtu
Result	Removal of Cryrian settlers
Belligerents
Älemsi National Army	Cryrian settlers
Strength
90 soldiers	30 volunteer militia
Casualties and losses
None	1 killed, 1 injured 2 captured

Northern Waters Dispute
	; Location of Yeralik Island in Northern Tynam
Date	1922 - 2002
Location	Duchy of Tynam, Kapan Autonomy
Result	Solstice Accords
Belligerents
Kingdom of Cryria	Älemsi Negdel

The Northern Waters Dispute, known in Älemsi as the Yeralik Island Dispute was a border dispute between Cryria and Älemsi Negdel over the possession of Yeralik Island and the surrounding maritime area. The dispute brought both countries to the brink of conflict in both 1957 and 2002, and was intensified by Yeralik Island's religious significance as well as the economic importance of the Tynam Straits. Confrontations in the region were characterized by the remoteness and harsh environment of the disputed territories.

The conflict's roots can be traced back to Cryrian colonial activities in the Rotantic, and the dispute initially began due to vagaries in the Chauşam Agreement which brought about the Cryrian withdrawal from Älemsi. The Northern Waters dispute was resolved after the Second Yeralik Crisis in 2002 with various concessions exchanged between the two sides.

Background

Antiquity

Yeralik Island was first recorded by the Älemsi in 50 AD, when followers of the semi-mythical Yul Adya reportedly enshrined his ashes atop one of the islands' hills. According to Älemsi myths, Yul Adya was the first Yul of Yul who was ultimately slain in an ambush far from his home on the nearby Arm of Khulan. His ashes and possessions were concealed on the remote island to protect them from marauders.

Regardless of the veracity of this account, the Adya Shrine Temple was later erected on the island and took on a major religious significance in Älemsi shamanism. Adya became the last of a number of Great Shrines that the first Yul had supposedly created, and as such is the final stopping point for those undertaking the Urt Ögsökh pilgrimage. The Adya Shrine also carried significance to the local Ay People, who claim to have been the ones who sailed Yul Adya's remains to their resting place. The Ay continue to practice a coming of age ceremony which requires young men and women to reenact the difficult journey to the Shrine. By Älemsi custom, it is forbidden to take images or even share descriptions of the Adya Shrine, and the former rule has been enforced by the Cryrian government as well. Writings of earlier explorers refer to

Despite the great significance of Yeralik Island, it lacked a permanent population due to its inhospitability.

Tynam Expedition

Northern Tynam was later explored by Cryrians in the 11th century. At the time, the region was largely unsettled save for the scattered and often impermanent presence of various Älemsi groups due to its inhospitable climate. Cryrian explorers also visited Yeralik Island at this time and recorded the presence of the Adya Shrine Temple. The Ay People themselves would go on to play an important role in a thriving fur trade with the Cryrians on the Tynam Peninsula. This was however later disrupted in the 13th century by the rise of the Älemsi Khaganate, which saw raids by the nomadic Kapan drive the Ay out of their coastal settlements. Survivors settled along the Tynam Archipelago and came under the protection of their former partners who now claimed the entire archipelago as a part of their Duchy. The Cryrians also maintained a claim to Yeralik Island on behalf of the Ay. In practice however, Yeralik remained unoccupied and was freely visited for religious purposes by both the Ay and other Älemsi groups.

Chauşam Agreement

The region continued to witness internecine conflict over the following centuries as a result of pirate activity and later Cryrian colonial ventures on Älemsi. Cryria went on to establish economic dominion over the Älemsi Khaganate, and the Duchy of Tynam supported the establishment of settlements on the Arm of Khulan in order to renew the area's fur and lumber trade. The Duchy also upheld a nominal claim to Zavital Khümüüs on behalf of its Ay population, although this was never acted upon by Leidenstad. Cryrian influence in Älemsi came to an abrupt end after the Great War and the Älemsi National Moment which saw the end of the Khaganate and the establishment of the Negdel. In 1922, Cryria and Älemsi Negdel signed the Chauşam Agreement which ended the many Cryrian concessions on Älemsi and ceded both Tynami claims over Zavital Khümüüs and Cryrian settlements on the Arm of Khulan. It further called for separate referendums to be held on the Älemsi-majority islands of Baltu, Kalle, and Juha in order to determine whether they would become Älemsi or Cryrian territory. It was expected by both sides that at least Kalle and Juha would vote to join the Negdel.

Referendum

Altan Erdeni, the first Speaker of the Grand Mazhilis and chief Älemsi negotiator for the Chauşam Agreement

The Cryrian government at the time was controlled by the isolationist wing of the Conservative Party, which hoped that the entirety of Northern Tynam would join Älemsi Negdel. Prime Minister Victor Adamsen reportedly cited the local population as "Inherently un-Cryrian" and considered a continued presence in the area to be both a drain on the nation's flagging finances and also a potential obstacle to more useful ties with the Negdel. As such, the Cryrian government made no effort to try and support pro-Cryrian elements in the referendum. Although Speaker Altan Erdeni cautioned the Älemsi government against complacency in the referendum, the Negdel itself was still riven by factional infighting and so could spare few resources for a vote which many saw as a mere formality. Both Leidenstad and Amrakh Gazarv were surprised however when all three islands voted to remain with the Kingdom. This result was largely brought about by the local population's continued wariness towards the neighboring Kapan Autonomy. Ethnic conflicts between the Ay and Kapan had persisted over the past centuries in various forms, and the use of Ay administrators and soldiers in Cryrian colonial ventures on Älemsi had created further animosity between them and the rest of the Älemsi population. As such there were real fears of the comparatively small Ay population facing reprisal or marginalization under Amrakh Gazarv's governance. A potential partition had also been fiercely opposed by the rest of Tynam, including the Duchess Alma who had previously lobbied against the cessation of generations-old Cryrian settlements on Khulan.

These factors combined with both governments' inability to understand the independent desires of the local population led to an unexpected result in what had previously been considered a forgone conclusion. According to some apocryphal reports, Älemsi personnel intending to oversee the union had arrived the day after the referendum without even bringing their passports, only to find that they were now in foreign territory.

Post-Referendum

The referendum results thrust Cryrian-Älemsi relations into turmoil and did not completely end the disputes in Northern Tynam, however. Yeralik Island, due to being uninhabited, had not been a part of the referendum. It had been understood by the Adamsen Government that Yeralik's status would be determined by the votes on neighboring Juha, while successive Älemsi governments have since claimed that Yeralik fell under the Arm of Khulan cessations. The new maritime boundary between the two nations also remained undefined, and local fishermen in Northern Tynam continued to make use of the same waters they had during the colonial era, which overlapped with Älemsi claims. As such there were strong economic and cultural imperatives among the Ay to ensure that Yeralik Island remained a part of the Kingdom. The Duchess of Tynam and various local politicians successfully lobbied various nationalist elements in Leidenstad such as the newly formed Red Hundred to uphold this claim. Red Hundred support was needed by Adamsen to maintain his coalition, and many within the Conservative Party itself were also swayed particularly as Cryrian nationalism sought a new direction in the post-imperial era. Thus, despite its misgivings the Adamsen Government was forced to uphold a Cryrian claim over the region.

The Cryrian decision led to mass political outrage in Älemsi Negdel, both in Amrakh Gazarv and the Kapan Autonomy. Although the Älemsi military at the time was ill-prepared to fight a war against their former Cryrian overlords, the Adamsen Government wished to preserve relations with Amrakh Gazarv. Threats by the Grand Mazhilis to blockade the Barrington Strait created further fears of an open conflict at a time when Cryria was still struggling with the Anarchy. In order to mollify the situation, the Adamsen Government facilitated a series of secretive meetings with Yul Gerelma. While the precise nature of these discussions was never made public, Leidenstad would later forgive Älemsi debts that had previously been guaranteed by the Chauşam Agreement, while the Yul of Yul made a rare appearance in the Grand Mazhilis to appeal for peace as the Negdel still reorganized in the wake of the National Moment. Älemsi Negdel did not end its claims to Yeralik Island and confrontations between Ay and Kapan fishing vessels continued. Altan Erdeni's government also ordered the expulsion of Cryrian settlers on the Arm of Khulan as a way to mollify Älemsi nationalist factions. Despite this, the dispute was effectively put on hold as both parties directed their resources to their respective internal situations while affirming their commitment to a peaceful resolution.

Interests of the Parties

Khyalnuur Beach, one of the few safe landing points on Yeralik Island

Over the years, the religious and economic importance of Yeralik Island continued to stoke varying degrees of tension in the Rotantic. Ay coming of age ceremonies and more general Älemsi pilgrimage practices require visits to the Adya Shrine Temple on the island. These voyages have generally been tolerated and facilitated by both parties, but they have at times stoked tensions or faced curtailment. The cultural importance of Yeralik Island has served to make it an ideological flashpoint in the Loopian Sea. In Älemsi Negdel, Cryrian control of Yeralik was broadly seen as an outright theft, and the neighboring Kapan Autonomy was the primary supporter for reclaiming the Island by any means, including force. Although military action was generally considered to be unpalatable by Amrakh Gazarv due to the high costs of a wider regional conflict and the mismatch between the CDF and the fledgling Älemsi National Military, the Kapan Autonomy has at times undertaken independent provocations in the area. The highly confederal nature of Älemsi governance allows each Autonomy to maintain its own militia, and this structure has greatly complicated discussions around Yeralik Island as Cryrian negotiators have frequently complained that it is unclear whether the Autonomies will respect any agreements formed with the central government.

Yeralik Island lacks the same cultural significance to most of the Cryrian population outside Northern Tynam. However, in the post-Great War era it served to become a cornerstone of nationalist politics. Maintaining the claim to Yeralik was considered to be necessary for any party that wanted to win votes in Tynami constituencies. While Tynam only represented around 2% of the Cryrian population, the Tynam Egendom has further been a disproportionately powerful lobbying force in Leidenstad which has ensured that the matter remains important to successive governments. The House of Tynam itself has long styled itself as the protector of Yeralik Island, and the Duchy as a whole has taken on an increasingly Älemsi character over the centuries. The continuation of the Northern Waters Dispute also held broader implications for Cryrian politics, as the sometimes unwanted alliance between Tynam and Cryrian nationalists forced the curtailment of what might have otherwise been a strong autonomist movement in Northern Tynam, which has remained culturally distinct from the rest of the Kingdom. Cryrian settlers expelled from the Arm of Khulan also returned to Tynam where they too formed a voting block that would oppose any further concessions to Amrakh Gazarv.

The area also hosts one of the most lucrative crab fisheries in the world. At its height in 1983, crab fishing in Northern Tynam and Western Älemsi produced over 200,000 pounds of crab. The intertidal zones around Yeralik Island are home to the coveted red king crab, which ranks as the most expensive king crab per unit of weight. The profitability of fishing around Yeralik Island brought Ay and Kapan trawlers into frequent contact and conflict with one another even prior to the First Yeralik Crisis. Overfishing in other areas of the Rotantic caused crab populations to decline markedly, however the relatively protected populations around Yeralik Island remained strong. This encouraged additional excursions to the Island by both sides, and helped stoke the tensions that resulted in the Second Yeralik Crisis in 2002.

The longstanding ethnic conflicts between the Ay and the Kapan have helped fuel clashes between religious and economic expeditions to Yeralik. Älemsi political theorist Chaghagan Khoga coined the phrase "The tail is wagging the dog" to remark upon the strange situation where relatively local interests were regularly introducing violence into a dispute which neither government wished to settle by force.

Khulan Reclamation and the Battle of Kärtu

Following the Northern Tynam Referendum, the Älemsi government began to aggressively pursue the expulsion of Cryrian settlers on the Arm of Khulan

under the auspices of the Chauşam Agreement. The failure of either governments to compensate them for their lost property caused significant resentment upon their return to Cryria however. Sensing a political opportunity, the House of Tynam provided support for thousands of returning Khulani, many of whom resettled in the Duchy and formed an important base of support for the continuation of other Cryrian claims in the region.

While most of the Khulani left Älemsi without a fight, a violent incident developed at the village of Kärtu. One of the first and largest settlements on the Arm of Khulan, Kärtu had a population of 123 people. Uniquely, the village proudly proclaimed itself to be "As Cryrian as Leidenstad," as opposed to other settlements which were largely populated by ethnic Ay from Tynam. This served to shape Cryrian perceptions towards Kärtu, and the settlers themselves still believed that Leidenstad could be pressured into supporting their continued presence. Similarly, the Älemsi government was reluctant to apply the same degree of force to Kärtu that it had used elsewhere and thus effectively left the coastal village for last, a decision which seemed to further confirm the settlers' belief that they might be able to remain. The settlers at Kärtu had also long maintained their own small militia which swelled with new arrivals fleeing other settlements.

As it became apparent that the Cryrian settlers would not depart of their own accord, Altan Erdeni made the decision to have them removed. Rather than rely on the Kapan Autonomous Militia as it had done elsewhere, the Älemsi National Army was called upon to handle the situation. It was hoped that the National Army would be more disciplined and careful in removing the settlers, thus avoiding an unwanted international incident.

As Kärtu was difficult to access by land, the Älemsi forces used commandeered fishing trawlers to cross the Bay of Khulan and landed just north of the village before moving by foot over the difficult terrain. The residents of Kärtu awoke on the 13th of June to find that they had been surrounded by around 90 Älemsi soldiers. Four settlers had been on watch and a brief firefight broke out when they encountered the advancing Älemsi. Hjalte Buhl, one of the militiamen, was killed. A second Cryrian, Alex Johannessen, was wounded in the exchange while the two others were captured. With no indication of support from Leidenstad now forthcoming, the remaining militia disarmed and the settlers surrendered. They were quickly placed on a vessel bound for Chauşam.

As the Älemsi government had feared, the events at Kärtu became a source for outrage in parts of Cryria, and local newspapers immortalized it as the "Battle of Kärtu." Hjalte Buhl became a minor hero for his resistance, particularly after it was revealed that he had previously fought in the Great War. The sensationalism around the incident was particularly fierce in Tynam, where images of the settlers arriving with only what possessions they could carry were quickly circulated. In Leidenstad however, the government was also still grappling with the increasing turmoil of the Cryrian Anarchy, and despite attempts to present Kärtu as a foreign attack to rally against the events gained little traction in the Kingdom's heartland. The Älemsi government was swift to further capitalize on this apathy by releasing the militia members it had captured, and Yul Gerelma issued a formal statement expressing his regrets over the "Unnecessary bloodshed" which had occurred. Älemsi leaders went publicly emphasized the restraint showed by the National Army when occupying Kärtu. These moves allowed Leidenstad to save face without pursuing further action.

For Altan Erdeni, the Battle of Kärtu represented the final step in reestablishing full Älemsi sovereignty. The removal of the Cryrian settlers mollified Älemsi nationalists who had grown critical of her administration following the failure to reclaim Northern Tynam. Settlers were dismissed as illegal occupiers, and the Khulan Reclamation is still a celebrated event for the Kapan Autonomous Militia. However many Cryrians, particularly those in Tynam, were not so quick to forgive. The incident along with other expulsions has since been memorialized in Cryrian media portraying the settlers as freedom fighters defending their lands in desperate battles in the frozen wilderness against Älemsi invaders. This legacy culminated in the highly successful movie Seven Soldiers which portrayed a group of Great War veterans hired to defend a village based on Kärtu.

Cryrian Constitution of 1929

After the completion of the Khulan Reclamation, the tensions around the Northern Waters Dispute largely receded as both Cryria and Älemsi Negdel grappled with myriad internal issues. For much of the 1920s, Cryria remained gripped by the Anarchy while Altan Erdeni's government fought to turn archaic Khaganate-era institutions into a modern state. By 1929, Cryria was finally emerging from its period of political turmoil with the formation of the new Conservative-Social Democrat governing coalition and the implementation of the 1929 Constitution. The new Cryrian Constitution quickly became a matter of concern for the Älemsi government however with the addition of Article 13, which among other items banned advocating for or engaging in secession and prohibited any Cryrian government from ceding sovereign Cryrian territory. The article had been added at the behest of nationalist elements in the Conservative Party after fierce lobbying by their Tynami political allies. The article was almost certainly demanded by Tynami politicians in order to assuage the constant threat that future Cryrian governments might again seek to divest themselves of Tynami territory. More importantly, Article 13 explicitly encompassed Northern Tynam including Yeralik Island as a part of Cryria. Cryria separately also formalized maritime claims that included additional waters which the Älemsi had considered to be already ceded as a part of the Khulan Reclamation.

Article 13 created immediate backlash from the Älemsi government which saw it as a death knell for any options to peacefully regain Yeralik. In a speech before the Grand Mazhilis, Älemsi Foreign Minister Altan Kaishan outlined the reaction:

“	The Cryrian Kingdom has deliberately tied her own hands by creating a situation where it is impossible for her to offer a meaningful resolution to our dispute under peaceful circumstances. In doing so she is making it increasingly difficult for the Älemsi people to continue to place their hopes in a peaceful solution.	„

The political stabilization of Cryria created further worries for the Älemsi position in the Dispute. For the past decade, Amrakh Gazarv had proven adept in taking advantage of the Kingdom's floundering post-Great War circumstances in order to extract concessions through diplomacy while avoiding an open economic or military conflict where it would be badly outmatched. However, the Älemsi government was now confronted with the prospect of a far more united Cryria which was now displaying a serious commitment to maintaining control in the region. The Constitution also demonstrated the outsized degree of Tynami influence in Leidenstad, and with it came the further expectation that Cryria would be more inclined towards hardline positions in the future. The strong Älemsi condemnations issued over the matter only served to further harden the Cryrian position. The 1929 Constitution was widely viewed as a document that would heal the nation's divisions, and outside attacks on it were immediately viewed as foreign interference in a domestic reconciliation process in which Tynam was owed a fair say. In her private writings, Altan Erdeni would admit that the harsh statements issued by her government had been "A mistake which belied our previous skill in managing Cryrian public opinion towards the issue."

Though the Älemsi government remained very much cognizant of its severe disadvantage in any open conflict, the Constitution of 1929 was impossible to ignore and thus marked the reestablishment of the Dispute as a priority for both nations.

The Crab Wars

This page (or section) is a work in progress by its author(s) and should not be considered final.

Phase One (1930-1933)

The first of many post-1929 standoffs between Cryria and Älemsi Negdel took place the following year when the Älemsi government announced its support for Älemsi fishing vessels operating in the disputed waters. In August 1930, the Älemsi trawler Khoid Türleg was found operating in the lucrative red king crab fisheries just 400 meters from Yeralik Island. Khoid Türleg had to be escorted out of Cryrian-claimed waters by the RCRN patrol boat Gryning Sjöman. For the Älemsi government, this was a test of their new policy and a few days later Khoid Türleg returned to Yeralik in the company of an unnamed Älemsi patrol boat. The vessels were spotted by Tynami fishermen, but departed before Cryrian patrol vessels reached their remote location. The incident generated diplomatic protests from both governments.

The Khoid Türleg incident marked the beginning of a new Älemsi policy which would rely upon sustained harassment and incursions to maintain pressure on Leidenstad and drive up the cost of its presence in the disputed waters. This tactic played heavily to Älemsi strengths in the area. Dispatch the large overall gap in naval power, the Cryrians had to patrol a large area which whose claimed boundaries stretched all the way along the Arm of Khulan to the Älemsi coast by Zavital Khümüüs. Cryrian maritime territory and interests outside the Rotantic further drew RCRN resources away from the area. Maintaining a naval deployment in Northern Tynam's difficult conditions was also expensive. In contrast, it was far easier for the Älemsi to violate the Kingdom's stated maritime boundaries than it was for the Kingdom to intercept and apprehend violators. Strict rules of engagement on the Cryrian side also prevented the Kingdom from bringing direct military force to bear and prevented Cryrian vessels from pursuing violators back into recognized Älemsi territory.

Faced with the new Älemsi policy, Leidenstad dispatched additional vessels to Tynam. The deployment of more RCRN ships to the contested waters led to protests outside the Cryrian Embassy in Amrakh Gazarv.

On 13 September, the RCRNS Skydda attempted to arrest an Älemsi trawler near Yeralik Island after it ignored warnings to depart, but failed after being rammed by an Älemsi patrol boat. A month later on 17 October, the RCRNS Evangelist fired three warning shots at the Älemsi trawler Margad, forcing it to depart. A more serious incident occurred on 19 November when the RCRNS Vakt encountered the Älemsi trawler Sükh, which did not halt even after the Vakt fired three warning shots. A standoff ensued with the arrival of the FKO Yesunege, an Älemsi patrol vessel. Both captains threatened to sink each other. The incident occurred near the Älemsi port at Zavital Khümüüs, an additional Älemsi vessels soon began to arrive, forcing the Vakt to depart. The Sükh incident demonstrated the weakness of Cryria's presence near the Älemsi coast.

On February 1, 1931, the patrol boat RCRNS Räddare entered recognized Älemsi waters and was shelled by shore-based artillery. The vessel escaped unscathed, and the Cryrian government later claimed that the incident was the result of a navigational error. The Räddare's commander was retired from the navy shortly thereafter. The Räddare incident marked the high point in tensions in the first phase of the Crab Wars. Intermittent but less dramatic encounters continued until 1933 when informal discussions were reopened in an attempt to demarcate maritime boundaries between the two nations. In this sense, the Älemsi strategy had borne fruit by bringing Leidenstad back to the negotiating table, although the Kingdom remained unwilling to discuss the status of Yeralik Island itself. An agreement allowed trawlers from the Kapan Autonomy to fish within Cryrian-claimed waters within certain quotas, but this was viewed as an interim deal and was set to expire in 1942 with the expectation that a more permanent solution could be found by then.

Phase Two (1942-1943)

Despite earlier hopes, no permanent demarcation settlement was reached by either party as an increasingly stable and confident Cryria opposed any concessions to Amrakh Gazarv. In 1942 the temporary agreement expired and Älemsi vessels were ordered out of Cryrian-claimed waters. To make matters worse, Yul Gerelma passed away in 1941, and Altan Erdeni lost an important supporter. Her government became increasingly reliant on Älemsi nationalists who had previously been placated by the Khulan Reclamation and were later kept in check by the Yul. The need to appeal to these factions led to a renewed policy of confrontation in the disputed regions.

The second phase of the Crab Wars was marked by the Cryrian use of net cutters to destroy the trawling lines of Älemsi vessels. This tactic was first tested on 15 September, 1942 when the RCRNS Skydda encountered an Älemsi trawler which had refused to leave the Cryrian claimed area. The Skydda successfully cut the nets on the trawler, and though many harsh words were exchanged between the two vessels, the Älemsi ship soon departed. On 17 November, a less successful net cutting attempt resulted in a collision between a Cryrian patrol boat and an Älemsi trawler, leading to one Älemsi crewmember suffering a severe injury. Soon afterwards, the Älemsi National Navy announced that it would once again begin escorting vessels into the disputed zones. Amrakh Gazarv accused the RCRN of purposefully colliding with their ship, and 1973 would see a spate of deliberate ramming incidents from both sides. The injury of an Älemsi citizen also led to new, fiercer protests outside the Cryrian embassy in Amrakh Gazarv, which saw rocks hurled through the embassy windows.

On 29 April, 1943, the RCRNS Skydda engaged in a lengthy pursuit of the Älemsi trawler Üürd before firing several blank rounds into the vessel. The Üürd was subsequently damaged but managed to limp back to port. Subsequently the Skydda itself was stalked by an Älemsi patrol vessel and rammed on 13 May. On 24 May, the RCRNS Isdrottning collided with four separate Älemsi vessels in a single day, and both Cryrian and Älemsi diplomats accused each other of instigating the incidents.

On 15 August, the RCRNS Skydda suffered the only confirmed death of the Crab Wars when it was rammed by the FKO Narny Tuyaa, killing one crewmember. Soon afterwards, the RCRNS Isdrottning damaged the Älemsi trawler Oin Alkhagch with blank rounds before boarding and seizing the vessel. The Oin Alkhagch and her crew were brought back to Tynam. The Älemsi National Navy retaliated by firing eight shells at a Cryrian lighthouse on Juha on 20 August.

The spate of ramming incidents, the seizure of the Oin Alkhagch, and the outright shelling of Cryrian territory demonstrated the possibility of a serious escalation. Both parties were still unwilling to risk war with one another, and diplomatic contacts resumed. Under the Zavital Agreement, Cryria agreed to allow Älemsi citizens to once again visit Yeralik Island for religious purposes, and the previous interim fisheries agreement between the two nations was made permanent. The actual ownership of the disputed areas remained in question, however the Cryrian concessions had been carefully measured to allow Altan Erdeni to claim a victory. The resumption of Älemsi pilgrimages to Yeralik represented a significant accomplishment that allowed her to placate her supporters, and the ability to continue fishing activities without facing the prospect of encounters with Cryrian patrol boats was sufficient to briefly mollify the Kapan Autonomy. The compromises laid out in the Zavital Agreement were also limited enough to avoid seriously angering the Tynami population in Cryria. Thus, the disputes between the two nations remained open, but actual confrontations ceased for a time.

Phase Three (1946-1947)

Unlike its predecessors, the third phase of the Crab Wars was fought wholly between Cryria and the Kapan Autonomy alone, rather than the Älemsi central government. In 1945, Ashighemur Khorghosun replaced his father as the Khagan of the Kapan Autonomy, and proceeded to consolidate power by pursuing a more independent and aggressive path that alarmed both Leidenstad and Amrakh Gazarv. Khorghosun first demanded the removal of fishing quotas outlined in the Zavital Agreement, and then later also pushed for the return of Yeralik Island. In both instances he was rebuffed by Altan Erdeni, and Leidenstad refused to treat with any group other than the Älemsi central government.

On 7 December, 1946, RCRNS Isdrottning encountered three armed trawlers bearing the flag of the Kapan Autonomous Militia near Yeralik Island. As the Zavital Agreement did not allow armed Älemsi vessels into the area, the Cryrians demanded that the ships depart. According to Cryrian accounts, the three Kapan vessels proceeded to conduct separate ramming attacks on the Isdrottning, badly nearly sinking it. The Isdrottning ultimately fired a live round into one of the Kapan trawlers before retreating to Chauşam for repairs. The Kapan Autonomous Militia contradicted this claim and instead insisted that the Cryrian vessel had attempted to seize its ships, and caused the subsequent collisions in the process.

At the time Altan Erdeni was occupied with the Hayagata Valley Conflict and was unwilling to risk another conflagration in the region. However, she simultaneously could do little to force the Kapan to stand down without exposing herself to nationalist ire. Instead, she ordered much of the Älemsi National Navy eastwards to conduct exercises, likely in the hopes that the increasingly truculent Khorghosun would bear the costs of his actions alone.

The Kapan soon demonstrated their resolve to do exactly that on 21 January, 1947 when a repaired Isdrottning was rammed by the armed trawler Süün Zam. Both ships were damaged. By February 1947, the Cryrian government also determined that Kapan trawlers were exceeding their quotas and the RCRN resumed its practice of net cutting.

On 13 March, a Cryrian patrol boat collided with a Kapan civilian vessel while attempting to cut its trawling line, and injured one Älemsi crewmember. The Kapan Autonomy also claimed that the Cryrian vessel had opened fire and killed another crewman, but this has never been proven. On 7 May, the RCRNS Gryning Sjöman was nearly sunk after being rammed twice by a Kapan vessel while trying to cut another trawler's nets, badly damaging both ships.

Phase Three is considered to be the most intense part of the Crab Wars. In total, nearly sixty separate ramming incidents occurred, along with a number of accidental collisions. The vessels of the Kapan Autonomous Militia were found to be far less restrained or disciplined than the Älemsi National Navy, and Cryrian captains described their opponents as "Reckless, verging on suicidal." However, the Kapan Autonomous Militia was also greatly limited in the number of vessels it had available, and the regular damage its ships suffered eventually forced it to back down, thus ending the final chapter of the Crab Wars.

The greatest loser of Phase Three was Altan Erdeni, who had both refused to support or reign in the Kapan. The Khagan's willingness to act independently greatly undermined the image of central authority she had sought to build in Älemsi Negdel, and the concessions of the Zavital Agreement were effectively undone as Cryria once again permanently barred Älemsi vessels from the disputed regions and halted Älemsi pilgrimages to Yeralik.

Much of Erdeni's energies would remain occupied in Älemsi's east, where the House of Tynam began to actively fund further turmoil. Erdeni avoided a conflict with Cryria for the remainder of her administration, but at the cost of rising discontent that later fueled the First Yeralik Crisis. The Kapan Autonomy also set the precedent for independent action with regards to the Northern Waters Dispute, something which would continue to plague Cryria-Älemsi relations until the 21st century

Hayagata Valley Conflict

Location of the Hayagata Valley in Älemsi Negdel

Date	1946-1948
Location	Yisugei Autonomy, Gazny Autonomy
Result	Älemsi National Army intervention, peace restored

Belligerents

Yisugei Autonomy

Gazny Autonomy

Supported by:

House of Tynam

Älemsi National Army

Commanders and leaders

Yisugei Ile

Gazny Tahar

Alma Tynam

Altan Erdeni

Units involved

10,000 Autonomous Militia

14,000 Autonomous Militia

Army Southeastern Command

Casualties and losses

Hundreds dead

None reported

250,000 internally displaced

For centuries, the Hayagata river valley has been used for grazing by herders belonging to the Yisugei People and the Gazny Family. The Älemsi National Moment saw fierce fighting between the Yisugei and the Gazny, particularly as the latter had initially supported the ethnically Gazny Khagan. The conclusion of the revolution saw peace restored in the Hayagata Valley, and the new system of Autonomies outlined new boundaries and land use rules for the area. These inevitably favored the Yisugei and stoked tensions between the two groups, and the situation was particularly complicated by the combination of nomadic, semi-nomadic, and sedentary groups which relied on the valley.

The situation was further accentuated when the House of Tynam began to provide funding and arms to rebuild the defeated Gazny militias during the Crab Wars in an effort to create internal issues for the Älemsi central government. While the Cryrian government insisted that it was playing no part in this, it also did little to reign in Tynam. The Älemsi Central Government meanwhile was hamstrung by the heavily confederal design of the country which allowed the Autonomies to maintain their own independent militias and manage most of their internal affairs. Despite Altan Erdeni's desire to gradually centralize the country, taking direct measures to curtail Gazny Khot would have left other Autonomies feeling threatened, particularly those which had previously supported the Khaganate. A risk of wider civil conflict and a preoccupation with the Crab Wars thus caused Amrakh Gazarv to initially turn a blind eye to the situation. For its part, the Gazny Autonomy maintained that it had no desire to do more than establish its constitutionally guaranteed Autonomous Militia on a footing equal to that of the other Autonomies.

The lack of action from Amrakh Gazarv served to alienate the Yisugei who feared aggression from an emboldened Gazny Khot, and thus took matters into their own hands.

Ethnic Clashes

On 3 April, 1946, the Hayagata Valley was the scene of clashes between Gazny and Yisugei herders over grazing rights. Shortly afterwards, the Yisugei Autonomous Militia seized control of the Valley in what was likely a pre-planned operation. An initial skirmish resulted in two Gazny Autonomous Militia soldiers killed and several others wounded, with over a dozen taken prisoner. The Gazny Family responded by mobilizing its own forces.

As clashes unfolded across the vast swathe of territory, Gazny Khot itself descended into riots. As the largest nearby port, the city had become home to many ethnically Yisugei traders in the decades since the National Moment. These individuals now faced looting and expulsion. In the Hayagata Valley, the Yisugei retaliated by expelling ethnic Gazny from the region.

Like other Älemsi conflicts, the fighting in Hayagata was defined by its harsh wilderness and remoteness, and much of the conflict went unreported on. Newspapers in Cryria distributed lurid stories of Älemsi groups burning or beheading each other, but these claims were never substantiated. It is estimated that nearly a thousand people did die in the clashes, but many of these casualties were either militia soldiers killed in armed clashes, or were expelled civilians who perished from exposure in the wilderness. The official death toll published by the Älemsi government has remained at 60.

National Army Intervention

Now faced with the prospect of the very civil war she had sought to avoid, Altan Erdeni ordered the Älemsi National Army to intervene and put a halt to the fighting. The Hayagata Valley was occupied by National Army soldiers by the end of April. Despite initial fears, neither parties attempted to engage the army outside of some isolated incidents. This was likely at least in part because the National Army was drawn from across all the Autonomies, and attacking it would risk the ire of the rest of the Negdel. However, while the arrival of the army halted the immediate fighting in Hayagata, it could not prevent the mob violence and outright ethnic cleansing that was spreading elsewhere across southeastern Älemsi.

Intensive negotiations followed that ended in both Yisugei Ile and Gazny Tahar ordering their forces to stand down. The former had hoped to receive Amrakh Gazarv's backing in the conflict against his larger neighbor as he had done during the National Moment. Having failed to achieve this, Ile was unwilling to pursue further fighting. Gazny Tahar, for his part, had been caught badly off-guard by the sudden Yisugei attack, and as such was willing to bring the conflict to an end with assurances that the original arrangement in the Hayagata Valley was maintained.

Despite this, communal violence continued in the region and the National Army found itself conducting a much broader policing action while contending with local authorities that were often still recalcitrant at best. It took two years for the situation to stabilize.

Aftermath

The Hayagata Valley Conflict holds a place as the last instance of widespread internal warfare between Älemsi groups. Although geographically removed from the Northern Waters Dispute, the events in the Hayagata Valley were deeply entwined with those taking place around Yeralik Island, and are also considered to be part of the same series of conflicts that plagued the region in the post-Cryrian era.

The actions of Altan Erdeni and remain fiercely controversial to this day. Her unwillingness to act earlier to prevent the violence is heavily criticized, as is her government's later inability to punish the leaders involved in the fighting. Indeed, Erdeni had been thrust into a particularly difficult decision, as the Yisugei who had traditionally been her allies had acted as the unequivocal aggressors. Any appearance of supporting the Yisugei in this would have destroyed Erdeni's carefully maintained appearance of neutrality, and could have reopened other conflicts from the National Moment. Conversely, retaliating against the Yisugei would have undermined Erdeni's own base of support. Furthermore, actively targeting the local leaders would have likely served to further destabilize the region, and thus it was deemed best to simply take no actions against local leaders beyond the minimum needed to restore the immediate peace.

Ultimately, the conflict also demonstrated the durability of Älemsi Negdel's central institutions. Many had feared that the National Army itself might splinter, but these predictions did not come to pass. While the National Military was indeed a multiethnic force, its different groups were also deeply integrated with one another and had inherited the same structure and discipline used by the Älemsi Auxiliaries to maintain cohesion.

The conflict also shed a particularly poor light on the Älemsi military structure which maintained a single professional armed forces but also allowed the existence of what amounted to independent armies among its constituent states. The widespread violence in Hayagata Valley provided the impetus Altan Erdeni needed to begin consolidating these many forces. While the Autonomous Militias continued to exist, they were now at least nominally subordinated to the National Military. The presence of Tynami weapons also resulted in new legislation that required all arms imports to go through the central government alone, which could then sell to domestic buyers. While this was difficult to enforce at the time, it would prove to be a valuable tool in reigning in the Autonomous Militias over the course of the 20th-century.

The involvement of the Duchy of Tynam in the conflict also came under heavy scrutiny in Cryria. The House of Tynam had actively supplied the Gazny Autonomous Militia and the subsequent outbreak in fighting had ensured that the Älemsi central government would not support the Kapan Autonomy in the final phase of the Crab Wars. While Leidenstad had initially provided tacit approval to Tynam's activities in this regard, the Cryrian government was deeply alarmed by the resulting violence. Despite the ongoing disputes, Cryrian policymakers believed that a united but decentralized Älemsi was necessary to maintain regional stability. The conflict in Hayagata Valley coupled with the Kapan Autonomy's independent pursuit of the renewed Crab Wars created fears that such meddling might lead to widespread warfare on Älemsi or even the Negdel's outright dissolution. The Duchy was warned off from interfering further in Älemsi internal affairs, although the House of Tynam has since continued to maintain a close relationship with the Gazny Family.

For Amrakh Gazarv, the Cryrian meddling in its internal affairs was a dangerous escalation that represented a threat to the very fabric of the Negdel. While the conflict had crippled Älemsi Negdel's ability to pursue the Northern Waters Dispute, it also served to harden attitudes and contributed to the First Yeralik Crisis. Altogether, some 250,000 people in southeastern Älemsi were at least temporarily displaced by the fighting, and the region's economy was effectively ruined for years. The costs borne by the two Autonomies and the Älemsi state caused the country severe financial distress for the next decade.

Despite its complicity with Tynam, the Gazny Family exited the conflict largely unscathed due to its size and its position as the aggrieved party. Gazny Khot would continue to be a target for suspicion, and it consequently chose to break off contacts with Tynam until after the First Yeralik Crisis.

First Yeralik Crisis

The events of the Hayagata Valley Conflict left the Älemsi government grappling with internal issues and unable to meaningfully challenge the Cryrians in the Northern Waters Dispute for the next decade. In 1956, Altan Erdeni passed away and was replaced by Ashighemur Khorghosun, who had gained notoriety in nationalist circles for his private prosecution of the last stage of the Crab Wars. Although he had been unsuccessful in forcing concessions from Leidenstad and effectively lost the gains made in the Zavital Agreement, Khorghosun's actions appealed to many in the aftermath of Tynami meddling in the Hayagata Valley. Additionally, the selection of the Kapan leader meant that for the first time in Älemsi history, one of the major Autonomies had control over the Speakership. This troubled many other groups, but it also meant that at least initially Khorghosun was less reliant on compromise than his predecessor.

The greatest obstacle to a military solution in the Northern Waters Dispute remained the severe mismatch between the Cryrian Defense Forces and the Älemsi National Military. Any conflict would rely upon air and naval power, which the Älemsi sorely lacked. In 1956, the Älemsi National Navy consisted mainly of patrol boats and armed trawlers for enforcement duties, while the nascent airforce was reliant on using improvised civilian models. The country's difficult financial situation following the Hayagata Valley Conflict had put an end to Altan Erdeni's plan to modernize the Älemsi military, and this now became Khorghosun's top priority. To that end, he also continued to pursue his predecessor's efforts to centralize military authority in the Negdel.

Construction of Yeralik Lighthouse

However, the new Älemsi administration's hand was forced before it could implement significant reforms. On 9 June, 1957, the Cryrian government began constructing a lighthouse on Yeralik Island. This greatly alarmed the Älemsi, as it marked the first permanent Cryrian outpost on Yeralik. Many in Amrakh also feared that the lighthouse would be used as a cover for a Cryrian military presence to uphold the status quo, something that would violate a tacit agreement surrounding the balance of forces in the area. Diplomatic protests were exchanged, but despite his aggressive reputation Khorghosun was initially reluctant to escalate the matter further due to his own weak position. A potential repeat of the Crab Wars was viewed as a fruitless exercise, while a more forceful military action was unlikely to succeed.

White November Crisis

The eruption of the White November Crisis in Cryria changed the Älemsi calculus with regards to its neighbor. The fall of the Tomorrow Ministry created a perception of turmoil in Cryria reminiscent of the Anarchy. Miscalculations by the Älemsi embassy in Leidenstad furthered the belief that Cryrian institutions now faced the same degree of paralysis and vulnerability that they had half a century ago. This served to embolden Khorghosun, and nascent military reforms were abandoned in favor of more immediate action. Starting on November 2, Cryrian intelligence sources reported large scale mobilizations in western Älemsi, however these warnings were not initially taken seriously by Leidenstad which remained occupied with its own internal crises. Increasingly harsh rhetoric from Älemsi leaders was similarly written off as Khorghosun's typical sabre-rattling.

There are no publicly available official documents or statements by the Älemsi government concerning a plan for a wider war with Cryria. Indeed, it is generally understood that the Älemsi leadership was seeking a short and localized conflict that would take advantage of Cryria's distracted state by seizing the remote territory and then presenting its ownership as a fait accompli. However, the fact that a broader mobilization of the Älemsi National Military took place suggests that there was at least some fear of Cryrian retaliation that would go beyond Yeralik Island itself, and seperate reports by individual Älemsi officials from the time have confirmed this. In such a scenario, Amrakh Gazarv was willing to accept the likelihood that Yeralik would be recaptured by superior Cryrian naval forces, and would instead prioritize protecting its long coastlines from further actions. The Älemsi National Navy was to preserve itself by avoiding direct conflict, and the Älemsi National Army would deter any sizable incursions into the Kapan Autonomy.

In either scenario, the Älemsi would have successfully contested Cryrian control over the region and thus demonstrated that the question of Yeralik's ownership was still open. This, coupled with the belief that Leidenstad would most likely not act at all spurred the Älemsi government into action. On 7 November, Älemsi Negdel issued new demands for the cessation of any permanent Cryrian presence on Yeralik Island and the dismantling of the lighthouse. It also called for the reinstatement of the Zavital Agreement. While the dismantlement of the lighthouse was rejected by Leidenstad, Cryrian diplomats reportedly expressed a willingness to hold discussions on the other points presented. This move largely backfired as it was seen by Khorghosun as further proof that the Cryrians were no longer confident of their ability to conduct a conflict.

Occupation of Yeralik Island

On 10 November, a company of Älemsi Maritime Infantry landed on Yeralik. Finding it undefended, they quickly seized the lighthouse and raised the Älemsi flag. The occupation marks one of the few times Cryrian territory has been seized by an external power, and was later called "The least dramatic invasion in Cryrian history." The three Cryrian lighthouse keepers had not even been aware of the Älemsi intent until they were detained, and thus failed to contact their superiors in Tynam. The Älemsi government itself deliberately chose not to publicize its seizure of the island, and instead sought to utilize the fog of war to strengthen its position. It took three days of missed check-ins by the lighthouse staff for an RCRN patrol vessel to be dispatched to the remote island, and when it arrived it found a heavily reinforced Älemsi presence and was quickly chased off.

With news of the occupation now reaching a chaotic Leidenstad, Amrakh Gazarv moved to formalize its takeover. Yeralik Island was proclaimed to be under Älemsi control following the removal of an illegal Cryrian presence, and the Älemsi government further reaffirmed its claims to the other disputed waters. Public statements by Älemsi officials indicated the possibility of certain token concessions with regards to visitation rights to the Adya Shrine Temple or fishing rights for Tynami vessels, but it was made clear that Yeralik itself was to be indisputably Älemsi. Speaker Khorghosun moved quickly to cement the situation by announcing that he would make the dangerous traditional religious voyage to Yeralik. Large rallies of support were organized in Zavital Khümüüs and elsewhere as a demonstration of Älemsi commitment to the matter.

Despite the uncontested seizure of the island, the Älemsi government was caught off-guard by a strong Cryrian response. While Leidenstad was indeed undergoing political difficulties due to the fall of the Tomorrow Ministry, the Ministry itself had been a strongly isolationist force and the nature of its removal had strengthened the hand of more aggressive political elements who saw the crisis as an opportunity to consolidate power. The Cryrian government demanded a complete Älemsi withdrawal, and when this failed to materialize it severed diplomatic relations on 15 November. The Riksdag introduced measures to end trade with Älemsi Negdel soon afterwards. A naval task force also began to assemble at Cxolthe, spearheaded by the RCRN's two new Aisis-class destroyers, and the Tynam Defense Area was placed on alert to interdict Älemsi shipping through the straits.

The *Aisis*-class destroyer *Bränning av* *Aisis*

The Cryrian reaction demonstrated to many of Khorghosun's supporters that his gamble had failed. To make matters worse, the powerful Amrakh and Gazny Autonomies both suffered badly from the loss of Cryrian trade, as unlike many interior regions the cities of Amrakh Gazarv and Gazny Khot both continued to rely heavily on the Kingdom. Tynam was similarly disrupted, a fact which ironically brought leaders from the three territories together in an effort to resolve the situation. Further, the Autonomies had been caught off-guard by Khorghosun's decision to seize Yeralik by force prior to the completion of the necessary military reforms needed to compete with Leidenstad. The perception of failure and the direct damages done to powerful groups inside the Negdel badly undermined the Speaker's support. The likelihood that the Maritime Infantry would need to abandon Yeralik upon the arrival of the Cryrian force intensified demands within Amrakh Gazarv that Khorghosun back down.

The Speaker, however, refused to withdraw his forces from Yeralik and instead ordered a halt to Cryrian shipping in the Barrington Strait. Leidenstad subsequently issued a 72-hour ultimatum demanding that Älemsi forces withdraw from Yeralik or face military action. Shortly afterwards, a vote of no confidence was started in the Grand Mazhilis which dethroned Khorghosun and replaced him with Amrakh Arik. Arik recognized the difficult situation his predecessor had left him in, but sought to ensure that the affair did not end in a potentially humiliating defeat for the Negdel. Gambling that Leidenstad might still be willing to offer some concessions in order to regain the Island without bloodshed, Arik's government opened negotiations with Cryria.

Amrakh Agreement and Aftermath

Remnants of the Cryrian Lighthouse on Yeralik Island

The subsequent Amrakh Agreement saw Älemsi forces withdraw from Yeralik Island in exchange for formal Cryrian assurances that no permanent presence would be established there. The Yeralik Lighthouse was abandoned soon afterwards. Further, Cryria ended its economic and maritime embargoes against Älemsi Negdel, and further removed import restrictions on the Älemsi fishing industry. Both countries guaranteed each others' transit rights through the Northern Way. The previously suspended Zavital Agreement was also reimplemented. A military liaison program was established to oversee deconfliction between the two nations in the Rotantic on a continuous basis. Both sides continued to claim the island, but agreed that it would remain under Cryrian administration until a final settlement could be reached.

The Amrakh Agreement demonstrated a previously lacking degree of political deftness in Cryrian foreign policy towards Älemsi Negdel, as it allowed the more moderate Arik government to save face and thus remain in power. It further ensured that the Kingdom escaped a potentially painful conflict in northern Novaris. Khorghosun himself was found dead in his home a month after the Agreement's signing, in what is speculated to be an assassination to prevent his return to power. It remains hotly disputed as to whether he was killed by Cryrian operatives or his Älemsi opponents.

Within Älemsi Negdel, the First Yeralik Crisis had serious political ramifications. Despite having won some concessions, the Crisis was ultimately seen as an Älemsi failure born out of the premature initiation of an unwinnable conflict. The Gazny Autonomy's role in ending Khorghosun's speakership effectively ended its isolation in Älemsi politics as it now was able to find common cause with the powerful Amrakhii. Relations between Gazny Khot and Tynam were also rekindled, and the House of Tynam played an important role in encouraging certain Cryrian concessions to bring the Crisis to an end.

The First Yeralik Crisis was emblematic of the broader Northern Waters Dispute in that ultimately both combatants were either unable or unwilling to escalate to open warfare in order to achieve a decisive conclusion. Despite this, it was the closest the two nations came to war over the issue. Khorghosun's overthrow and death alienated the Kapan Autonomy from the Älemsi central government. The significant reduction in Kapan influence left Amrakh Gazarv free to pursue closer relations with Cryria, which it did at least in part to keep the western Autonomy in line. The Amrakhii-Gazny coalition ultimately proved to be a stable force in Älemsi politics, one that ensured Cryrian friendliness, kept the Kapan in check, maintained Älemsi stability and prosperity, and ensured that the Northern Waters Dispute remained frozen. Although the Dispute continued to be a sticking point in Cryria-Älemsi relations, the Amrakh Agreement made it far easier to ignore. Ties between the two countries continued to evolve and improve into a budding partnership over the following decades as both sides were incentivized to effectively work around the question.

Second Yeralik Crisis

The decades following the First Yeralik Crisis were marked by an initially complicated but gradually strengthening Cryria-Älemsi partnership. The new government in Amrakh Gazarv was reliant on good relations with Leidenstad in order to keep the Kapan Autonomy in line, while the Cryrians themselves did not wish to see the return of hostile leadership in Älemsi Negdel. The creation of a mutually acceptable détente through the Amrakh Agreement marked the beginning of an economic and political partnership that culminated in the Cryria-Älemsi Treaty of Friendship in 1990. Both governments pursued a policy of neutrality in the Novaran Cold War and viewed a stable and peaceful northern Novaris as central to their interests. Further, both geographic and economic realities ensured a degree of interdependence between the two nations. Improved Cryrian ties also created an environment where the Kingdom could accept the Älemsi goal to establish itself as an equal military and economic power to Leidenstad. Indeed by the 1990s Cryria had become a major arms supplier for the Älemsi National Military, and the Negdel was viewed as an important bulwark that could maintain the stability of the Northern Way. Similarly, many in Tynam viewed a final rapprochement with Älemsi Negdel as an opportunity that would allow the Tynami electorate to break away from hardline Cryrian nationalists and instead safely pursue its desired goals for greater internal autonomy without fear of an Älemsi threat.

However, the Northern Waters Dispute remained a point of contention, even as it was increasingly relegated to diplomatic back-channels. As a part of the Treaty of Friendship, the Cryrian government had promised to reopen formal negotiations on the status of the disputed territories. This initiative subsequently stalled however due to Cryrian constitutional limits that prevented the cessation of territory.

Schauman Government

The 2000 elections brought the Schauman Government to power in the Kingdom's first ever Green-dominated coalition, and suggested that a breakthrough might be possible. Prime Minister Martin Schauman had been one of the negotiators for the Treaty of Friendship and sought to further strengthen ties with the Negdel in order to gain favorable access to the nation's massive but heavily restricted natural resources. The first year of the Schauman Government saw the implementation of a number of long delayed projects between the two countries. Most notably, the Cryrian government finally approved the construction of CDU reactors near Amrakh Gazarv, which would be the first Älemsi nuclear power plant. Construction had previously been stalled over fears of inadvertently transferring nuclear capabilities to Älemsi Negdel.

Schauman was also strongly in favor of returning Yeralik Island to Älemsi Negdel in order to finally remove a long-running obstacle, one which many in his circle felt had brought little gain to the Kingdom. Schauman wished to amend the Cryrian constitution in order to allow for the final transfer of Yeralik to Amrakh Gazarv, so that negotiations could be safely reopened on the subject. This move faced opposition from within his own government however, particularly from Foreign Minister Helena Reitz who could not be safely dismissed by Schauman without alienating his Social Democratic coalition partners.

2002 Cryrian General Elections

Obstinacy from the Foreign Ministry and elsewhere in the bureaucracy pushed the Green Party into taking up a more public stance around the issue in order to rally support. Unrelated political issues led to a snap election being called in 2002, and the proposal to cede Yeralik Island would become enshrined in the party's manifesto. Although initially a minor point in the party platform and the election as a whole, it quickly began to garner attention when the Prime Minister directly accused members of the security and foreign policy establishment of seeking to undermine him.

Several reports issued by the Cryrian Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Ministry did in fact refer to public discussion around surrendering Cryrian territory as "Dangerous" and "Liable to undermine the Kingdom's security by fostering unrealistic expectations among our Älemsi partners." This conflict was symptomatic of the problematic relationship between the Schauman Government and Securitate, whose heavily conservative institutions had historically targeted the Greens and their political allies.

Indeed, Älemsi views around the Northern Waters Dispute were heavily influenced by the 2002 Manifesto. It was particularly noted that the Schauman Government based its position in the belief that Yeralik Island was "Culturally and historically inseparable from the Älemsi nation" and "Likewise fundamentally irrelevant to the Kingdom." The Green Party platform further noted that Cryrian maritime claims extended well beyond those that would be associated with Yeralik Island regardless under international customs, and were difficult to defend on both a legal and pragmatic basis. For many in Amrakh Gazarv, this was practically an official declaration of Yeralik's status and a representation of the Cryrian population's own desires. Further, Speaker Nayan had long maintained a close relationship with Schauman, and reportedly took the Prime Minister's claims of a meddling Cryrian civil service at face value. Thus, a view began to emerge of a popular Cryrian government that was prepared to cede Yeralik but was being foiled by the Cryrian deep state. It was expected that the elections in 2002 would strengthen Schauman's hand and thus lead to the return of Yeralik.

However, the unforeseen circumstances of the Volscine Civil War soon threw Schauman's plans into jeopardy. The conflict erupted just before the election and threw the Cryrian government into turmoil as the economy all but shut down and a massive security crisis now loomed from the south. This fostered an environment where the Conservative Party was able to snatch an upset victory, and now formed a coalition with the Social Democrats that cut the Greens out of power.

Marlberg Government

The election of the Conservatives seemed to dampen hopes for negotiations over Yeralik, and the appointment of Charles Marlberg as Prime Minister effectively killed the plan. Marlberg had previously led the Hallström Center, a fiercely nationalistic wing of the Conservative Party. Marlberg himself had close ties to the Cryrian security establishment, which itself had been opposed to ceding additional ground on the Northern Waters Dispute. In Amrakh Gazarv, the sudden shift from the unprecedently friendly Schauman Government to the comparatively hostile Marlberg was considered a slap in the face. The way in which prospects for Yeralik's return had been snatched away at the last minute served to bring the dispute back to the forefront of Älemsi politics in a manner reminiscent of the early-20th century. Yeralik's renewed visibility in Älemsi Negdel rekindled old tensions between the two countries at an already unstable time in Novaris.

The matter was further complicated by the growing sentiment within the Älemsi establishment that the Cryrian Securitate had helped to engineer Schauman's removal. Documents released after the crisis revealed that officials as high as Speaker Nayan himself believed that elements in Leidenstad had been actively working to undermine any possibility of returning Yeralik to Älemsi Negdel, and that these forces were now in control of the Kingdom. Schauman himself later faced a SÄPO investigation regarding whether he had actively fostered this view after leaving office, but no formal charges were levied. Thus, a sense of suspicion towards Amrakh Gazarv and the previous government's pro-Älemsi stances developed within Leidenstad, and was only overshadowed by the crises generated by the Volscine Civil War.

However, measures taken by the Marlberg Government in that regard further raised Älemsi ire. Shortly after the elections, Älemsi agents confirmed that the Cryrian Special Materials Division had been directed to restart the Kingdom's dormant nuclear weapons program. This coincided with Älemsi fears that Cryria had come under the control of anti-Älemsi elements. A nuclear-armed Cryria would irrevocably ensure that the balance of power remained tilted towards Leidenstad and effectively destroyed any expectations of an equal partnership as promised in the Treaty of Friendship. For the Älemsi, a Yeralik that was under a Cryrian nuclear umbrella would further become completely irrecoverable. Despite these realities, Nayan's government did not move to publicize their knowledge of the nuclear program and instead sought to leverage it in order to both extract limits on Cryrian nuclear capabilities and concessions on Yeralik Island.

Although little has been released regarding discussions between Leidenstad and Amrakh Gazarv at this time, it is generally understood that Älemsi diplomatic outreach was initially not taken seriously by the Marlberg Government. The ongoing Charlottesborg Mutiny and economic crisis had taken over much of Leidenstad's resources, and matters concerning Yeralik were simply deemed a lower priority. This served to further irritate the Älemsi Foreign Ministry. Cryrian economic troubles created additional rifts when work on the promised Älemsi nuclear reactors was halted. This was supposedly due to supply chain disruptions from the war, but the fact that the reactors had been paid for in advance caused public outrage in the Negdel. Disruptions by Cryrian-owned flights due to Operation Caroline only created additional troubles in the relationship, while Älemsi overtures continued to meet an unreceptive audience.

All of this combined to create an image for Amrakh Gazarv where the powers now in control of Leidenstad were deliberately stonewalling their efforts, or were simply ignorant as to the severity of the situation. By November, Nayan's government had resolved to take more aggressive measures.

1 November Incident

On 1 November, 2002, Älemsi TCN-05 fighters penetrated the Cryrian Air Defense Identification Zone(CADIZ) around Tynam in multiple separate events. One aircraft directly overflew Yeralik island before being escorted away by Cryrian Gripens. In a far more serious incident, Älemsi jets appeared above the skies of Tynam itself before being intercepted by Cryrian fighters. Both sides exchanged hundreds of rounds in warning shots before the Älemsi aircraft departed, and flights to and from Gustav International Airport were temporarily halted due to safety concerns. The CADIZ had been a point of contention since its establishment in 1950 and had never been recognized by Amrakh Gazarv. However, the 1 November incident was the most serious case of disregard for the CADIZ, and was the first time in history that Cryrian and Älemsi aircraft exchanged fire as well as the first time that Älemsi aircraft entered Cryrian airspace proper.

The action was successful in that it immediately captured Leidenstad's attention. Älemsi ambassador Boroghul Tugan was summoned by the Cryrian Foreign Ministry in response.

The incident further served to underscore a new regional imbalance between the two countries. Much of the Tynam Defense Area had been stripped of units in order to guard the Cryrian heartland from possible spillover effects of the Volscine Civil War, or even direct attacks following the end of Cryrian recognition for the Volscine Confederacy. By November, air and coastal defense units as well as major surface combatants at submarine squadrons based in Tynam had been redeployed. The defense of Tynam's airspace was thus left in the hands of the 7th Fighter Wing, while the RCRN presence had been reduced to small coastal combatants and patrol vessels. By contrast, the Älemsi National Air Force could muster over 340 fighter jets. Similarly, the Älemsi National Navy possessed 26 frigates in comparison to a total of 14 in the entire RCRN, as well as a budding submarine fleet. Even more importantly, the Maritime Infantry's logistical capabilities had been expanded to include several LSTs and an amphibious transport dock. Älemsi equipment at this time was still an eclectic mix of old and often outdated pieces from a variety of different origins, however the degree of the numerical imbalance quickly became a cause for concern in Leidenstad, particularly as redeploying forces to Tynam would weaken efforts to protect southern Cryria.

While the 1 November Incident was in many ways reminiscent of the incursions of the Crab Wars, they set a new and far more dangerous tone between the two countries. The prospect of military parity raised the specter of an armed confrontation between the two nations, and the Incident is generally considered to be the starting point for the Second Yeralik Crisis.

Mobilization

The Kapan Autonomy remained the strongest supporter for reclaiming Yeralik, and it quickly followed up the 1 November Incident by mobilizing its own Autonomous Militia for exercises along the western coast starting on 2 November. Simultaneously, after fruitless discussions between Ambassador Tugan and Foreign Minister Reitz, the Älemsi Foreign Ministry began to expel numerous Cryrian diplomats and agents. While these expulsions had begun prior to 1 November, by 2 November the Cryrian consulate in Zavital Khümüüs had been effectively shuttered.

Although the Kapan Autonomous Militia had only limited capability to threaten Tynam, its mobilization was a cause for serious concern in Leidenstad. The Kapans' willingness to act independently in the past created fears that the Autonomy might seek to create a provocation that would allow or encourage the Älemsi government to escalate the situation. The mobilization also raised the specter of a repeat of the First Yeralik Crisis where Älemsi forces occupied the disputed island. Under the Amrakh Agreement, Yeralik lacked any permanent Cryrian presence, and the only obstacles to an Älemsi landing would have been poor weather and the difficult environment.

Cryrian Special Naval Infantry unit on exercises in 2001

Following the mobilization, the Cryrian General Staff began taking the possibility of a conflict with Älemsi Negdel more seriously. It is believed that the CDF subsequently deployed elements of the Special Naval Infantry, or Särskilt Sjöinfanteri(SSI), to Yeralik Island in order to prevent a repeat of the covert occupation witnessed in 1957. Such a deployment has never been confirmed by the Cryrian government however, and is only referenced in materials published by the Älemsi National Intelligence Service in 2003. It remains unclear how much, if any, of the estimated 450-strong SSI was moved to Yeralik, but such a presence would have violated the spirit if not the letter of the Amrakh Agreement, and demonstrated the degree to which Leidenstad expected an incursion.

Renewed Negotiations

Faced with the worst-case scenario of an uncontrolled escalation of the crisis, the Cryrian government secretly reinitiated diplomatic contacts with its Älemsi counterparts. It is thought that these early discussions were facilitated by the House of Tynam and the Gazny Autonomy, and soon became the focus of efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully. The talks took on a heightened sense of urgency for both parties when Khagan Ashighemur Mukhali of the Kapan Autonomy openly proposed that Älemsi Negdel press a claim not just to Yeralik, but also the populated islands of Juha, Kalle, and Baltu. These regions contained roughly half of Tynam's population, including its second largest city. The Khagan's comments provoked an angry response from Leidenstad. It also garnered little support within the Grand Mazhilis, which was disinterested in pursuing such an expansive goal and wary of launching a campaign which would force a maximalist Cryrian response. Despite this, concerns grew when Speaker Nayan visited Zavital Khümüüs on 15 November along with high ranking cabinet members. Although Nayan made no public endorsement of the Khagan's statements, his visit was viewed as one of support, particularly as he dismissed the anti-war Foreign Minister Burim Battsetseg soon afterwards and ended the liaison program between the CDF and the Älemsi National Military. This decision along with the return of Cryrian military activity to Yeralik Island marked the de facto demise of the Amrakh Agreement.

By 16 November the Älemsi National Military had begun a general mobilization and began federalizing the Autonomous Militias. This was the first time in Älemsi history that the militias had been federalized outside of preplanned exercises. On 17 November, news outlets began to report that the Älemsi National Military was requisitioning medical supplies from hospitals in Zavital Khümüüs. The Cryrian Defense Forces responded with their own exercises in Tynam.

A number of Cryrian reservists reportedly received notifications to update their contact information and personal details with the Ministry of Defense, but this was later claimed to be part of a regular periodic process conducted by the Directorate of Personnel.

As the crisis reached its height, the Cryrian Säkerhetspolisen launched Operation Strålkastare targeting Älemsi intelligence gathering networks within the Kingdom. News of Cryrian counterintelligence operations reached the public sphere on 17 November when the Cryrian Foreign Ministry expelled 21 diplomatic staff from the Älemsi embassy in Leidenstad and the consulate in Tynam. Official Cryrian statements at the time indicated that these expulsions were retaliation for the earlier removal of Cryrian diplomats from Zavital Khümüüs, but several independent analysts later suggested that the staff in question had been targeted for their links to Älemsi intelligence agencies. The SÄPO is believed to have also launched broader counterintelligence actions against suspected Älemsi networks inside Cryria at this time. According to the agency's reporting, the SÄPO successfully dismantled several Älemsi-backed groups which had been tasked with targeting industry and infrastructure across the Kingdom in the event of war. These efforts extended into the CDF itself, where the SÄPO's targeting of Älemsi and Älemsi-origin personnel later became a source of controversy.

Fall of the Nayan Speakership

Speaker Nayan's implied approval of Mukhali's desire to expand Älemsi claims across northern Tynam widened existing schisms within Älemsi society and government surrounding any potential conflict. Älemsi war planning had previously called for the rapid seizure of Yeralik island as well as its two populated neighbors, Kalle and Juha. However, the latter two territories were to be used as bargaining chips to bring a negotiated end to the conflict, and planned Älemsi operations after the initial offensive would have primarily sought to attrit Cryrian forces in southern Tynam while disrupting CDF efforts to regroup and reinforce in the region. However, suggestions that Älemsi Negdel's primary goals now included the annexation of Kalle and Juha undermined their value as negotiating pieces, and precluded the use of this planned exit strategy from the war. Proposals to further extend the seizure of territory to Baltu only served to escalate these concerns. There were also significant doubts within Älemsi military leadership as to whether their armed forces could accomplish the formidable task of seizing the large island, which was also home to Tynam's second largest city.

Nayan had deliberately avoided making a firm commitment on extending Älemsi claims in the region, but this strategy created issues of its own as it generated uncertainty within the Älemsi political and military sphere. His government's perceived evasiveness on the topic served to further sap confidence even among his main backers in the Grand Mazhilis. Among them was Amrakh Ajai, who viciously attacked Nayan during a parliamentary session:

“	Under the Speaker's leadership we have begun to experience mission creep before the mission has even begun. What began as an effort to utilize diplomatic pressure to restore Älemsi sovereignty over Yeralik Island has escalated into a planned military expedition that involves the entirety of the Tynam Archipelago and would see all of Älemsi spill its blood to fulfill the Kapan Autonomy's private vendettas. This Speakership is asking for Älemsi lives while refusing to properly clarify its aims, and I must now also wonder what element of surprise remains to us in this matter?	„

All of this led to increasingly open acrimony within the Älemsi government, largely spearheaded by the powerful Amrakh and Gazny Autonomies who stood to suffer economically in the event of a prolonged conflict. Matters came to a head on 28 November when former Foreign Minister Altan Battsetseg initiated a vote of no-confidence that garnered thirty supporting votes out of a total of forty-two seats in the Grand Mazhilis. Nayan was accordingly displaced from the Speakership and quickly replaced by Battsetseg.

The Solstice Accords

Although Battsetseg was widely viewed as a moderate on the Yeralik issue and did ease official Älemsi rhetoric after taking power, he also maintained the military mobilization and other hardline stances he had inherited. This was understood to be a negotiating tactic to compel Leidenstad to follow through on secret discussions it had previously held. Although little regarding these discussions has been made public, they are thought to form the baseline of the Solstice Accords which brought the Northern Waters Dispute to a close.

Signed in Tynam on the winter solstice, the Accords resolved most of the key issues between the two nations. While they included mutual recognition of Yeralik Island as Cryrian territory, the Accords also gave the Älemsi government ownership of the Adya Shrine. While not officially Älemsi territory, the Älemsi government is allowed to post unarmed caretakers to the shrine which enjoys certain extraterritorial rights. Access to the shrine is guaranteed for both Cryrian and Älemsi citizens, the latter of which may travel freely to Yeralik without a visa or other prior authorization by the Cryrian government. Stipulations from the earlier Amrakh Agreement which banned any form of construction or military presence on the Island were once again implemented, and to date the only permanent dwelling on Yeralik is a small residence for the shrine's caretakers. The final status of both the Adya Shrine and Yeralik Island allowed the Cryrian government to sign the Accords without fear of violating the 1929 Constitution or causing large-scale public backlash, as no true transfer of territory took place. Similarly, by effectively securing the Adya Shrine the new Älemsi government was able to assuage the religious concerns of its own population, and support from religious leaders such as the Yul of Yul proved vital for the government's success and the signing of the Accords.

Beyond Yeralik, the Solstice Accords also redrew the maritime boundaries between Tynam and the Amrakh Autonomy. The new boundaries discarded old colonial-era agreements and established EEZs based on current international conventions, which heavily favored the Kapan Autonomy and provided it with key waters for fishing and oil extraction. While Kapan leaders had previously taken hardline positions against Leidenstad and were among Nayan's final supporters, these concessions allowed Battsetseg's Speakership to establish vital rapport with Zavital Khümüüs and it successfully precluded Kapan efforts to undermine the new agreement. Waters accorded to Yeralik Island remained under Cryrian jurisdiction, and previous agreements to split the king crab catches from the island were not renewed due to the conflicts and enforcement difficulties they had generated.

The Solstice Accords also revived a previously agreed upon sale of Cryrian CDU reactors to Älemsi Negdel. The reactors had already been paid for, but delivery had stalled under the Marlberg Government, a fact which had drawn significant ire from the Älemsi public. The reactors now came with generous technology transfer agreements, and were a key concession that won support from the Amrakh Autonomy. A range of Cryrian economic barriers were also lowered under the Accords, and the military liaison office established by the Amrakh Agreement was restored.

It is thought that the Accords also contained a secret clause regarding the Cryrian nuclear weapons program, which had begun as a reaction to the collapse of Volscina and had served as a motivating factor for the Nayan Speakership's hostility towards Leidenstad. However, the existence of this program or any agreements relating to it have never been acknowledged by the Cryrian government. Nor did any such agreement halt the development of Cryrian nuclear weapons, as the Fara Incident took place some three months later.

Aftermath

The Northern Waters Dispute spanned over the course of a century and involved multiple diplomatic crises, economic conflicts, and near-miss military confrontations. The conflict prevented the complete normalization of ties between the two nations for much of the 20th century, and its sudden revival with the Second Yeralik Crisis served to undo much of the rapprochement that had been achieved throughout the 1990s. Nevertheless, the compromises within the Solstice Accords are thought to have brought the long-running dispute to a permanent end, as it nullified many of the economic and religious contentions at the heart of the matter.

Relations between the two governments remained rocky throughout the rest of the 2000s, and many hardline elements in Cryria reacted poorly to the concessions made. Similarly, the Battsetseg was later forced to contend with accusations of collaboration as rumors of his secret dealings with Leidenstad circulated. However, the concessions made in the Accords had garnered the support of key Autonomies in the Negdel, thus ensuring that both it and Battsetseg remained in place. Similarly, there was little appetite in Cryria to force a revision to the Accords while the crisis on Mainland Novaris persisted. Any remaining Älemsi desire to reclaim Yeralik in full similarly dissipated as the window of opportunity offered by the period of Cryrian weakness passed.

Thus, the Accords remained stable and paved the way for a new rapprochement between Leidenstad and Amrakh Gazarv in the 2010s as economic ties improved. The two nations later reaffirmed the Cryria-Älemsi Treaty of Friendship in 2018 amidst the backdrop of the Ymirland Civil War, and both countries have since formed a range of political, intelligence, and military partnerships with each other.

Northern Waters Dispute

Contents

Background

Antiquity

Tynam Expedition

Chauşam Agreement

Referendum

Post-Referendum

Interests of the Parties

Khulan Reclamation and the Battle of Kärtu

Cryrian Constitution of 1929

The Crab Wars

Phase One (1930-1933)

Phase Two (1942-1943)

Phase Three (1946-1947)

Hayagata Valley Conflict

Ethnic Clashes

National Army Intervention

Aftermath

First Yeralik Crisis

Construction of Yeralik Lighthouse

White November Crisis

Occupation of Yeralik Island

Amrakh Agreement and Aftermath

Second Yeralik Crisis

Schauman Government

2002 Cryrian General Elections

Marlberg Government

1 November Incident

Mobilization

Renewed Negotiations

Fall of the Nayan Speakership

The Solstice Accords

Aftermath

Navigation menu

Northern Waters Dispute

Background

Antiquity

Tynam Expedition

Chauşam Agreement

Referendum

Post-Referendum

Interests of the Parties

Khulan Reclamation and the Battle of Kärtu

Cryrian Constitution of 1929

The Crab Wars

Phase One (1930-1933)

Phase Two (1942-1943)

Phase Three (1946-1947)

Hayagata Valley Conflict

Ethnic Clashes

National Army Intervention

Aftermath

First Yeralik Crisis

Construction of Yeralik Lighthouse

White November Crisis

Occupation of Yeralik Island

Amrakh Agreement and Aftermath

Second Yeralik Crisis

Schauman Government

2002 Cryrian General Elections

Marlberg Government

1 November Incident

Mobilization

Renewed Negotiations

Fall of the Nayan Speakership

The Solstice Accords

Aftermath

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