Northern Waters Dispute: Difference between revisions
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{{RP award|Gold}}
{{Infobox military conflict
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under the auspices of the Chauşam Agreement. The failure of either governments to compensate them for their lost property caused significant resentment upon their return to Cryria however. Sensing a political opportunity, the House of Tynam provided support for thousands of returning Khulani, many of whom resettled in the Duchy and formed an important base of support for the continuation of other Cryrian claims in the region.
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=== Amrakh Agreement and Aftermath ===
[[File:Lighthouse.jpg|thumb|Remnants of the Cryrian Lighthouse on Yeralik Island]]
The subsequent Amrakh Agreement saw Älemsi forces withdraw from Yeralik Island in exchange for formal Cryrian assurances that no permanent presence would be established there. The Yeralik Lighthouse was abandoned soon afterwards. Further, Cryria ended its economic and maritime embargoes against Älemsi Negdel, and further removed import restrictions on the Älemsi fishing industry. Both countries guaranteed each others' transit rights through the Northern Way. The previously suspended Zavital Agreement was also reimplemented. A military liaison program was established to oversee deconfliction between the two nations in the Rotantic on a continuous basis. Both sides continued to claim the island, but agreed that it would remain under Cryrian administration until a final settlement could be reached.
The Amrakh Agreement demonstrated a previously lacking degree of political deftness in Cryrian foreign policy towards Älemsi Negdel, as it allowed the more moderate Arik government to save face and thus remain in power. It further ensured that the Kingdom escaped a potentially painful conflict in northern Novaris. Khorghosun himself was found dead in his home a month after the Agreement's signing, in what is speculated to be an assassination to prevent his return to power. It remains hotly disputed as to whether he was killed by Cryrian operatives or his Älemsi opponents.
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Indeed, Älemsi views around the Northern Waters Dispute were heavily influenced by the 2002 Manifesto. It was particularly noted that the Schauman Government based its position in the belief that Yeralik Island was "Culturally and historically inseparable from the Älemsi nation" and "Likewise fundamentally irrelevant to the Kingdom." The Green Party platform further noted that Cryrian maritime claims extended well beyond those that would be associated with Yeralik Island regardless under international customs, and were difficult to defend on both a legal and pragmatic basis. For many in Amrakh Gazarv, this was practically an official declaration of Yeralik's status and a representation of the Cryrian population's own desires. Further, Speaker Nayan had long maintained a close relationship with Schauman, and reportedly took the Prime Minister's claims of a meddling Cryrian civil service at face value. Thus, a view began to emerge of a popular Cryrian government that was prepared to cede Yeralik but was being foiled by the Cryrian deep state. It was expected that the elections in 2002 would strengthen Schauman's hand and thus lead to the return of Yeralik.
However, the unforeseen circumstances of the [[Arkian Civil War|Volscine Civil War]] soon threw Schauman's plans into jeopardy. The conflict erupted just before the election and threw the Cryrian government into turmoil as the economy all but shut down and a massive security crisis now loomed from the south. This fostered an environment where the Conservative Party was able to snatch an upset victory, and now formed a coalition with the Social Democrats that cut the Greens out of power.
=== Marlberg Government ===
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=== 1 November Incident ===
On 1 November, 2002, Älemsi
▲On 1 November, 2002, Älemsi Örn 37 Viggen fighters penetrated the Cryrian Air Defense Identification Zone(CADIZ) around Tynam in multiple separate events. One aircraft directly overflew Yeralik island before being escorted away by Cryrian Gripens. In a far more serious incident, Älemsi jets appeared above the skies of Tynam itself before being intercepted by Cryrian fighters. Both sides exchanged hundreds of rounds in warning shots before the Älemsi aircraft departed, and flights to and from Gustav International Airport were temporarily halted due to safety concerns. The CADIZ had been a point of contention since its establishment in 1950 and had never been recognized by Amrakh Gazarv. However, the 1 November incident was the most serious case of disregard for the CADIZ, and was the first time in history that Cryrian and Älemsi aircraft exchanged fire as well as the first time that Älemsi aircraft entered Cryrian airspace proper.
The action was successful in that it immediately captured Leidenstad's attention. Älemsi ambassador Boroghul Tugan was summoned by the Cryrian Foreign Ministry in response.
[[File:Tynam Gripen.png|thumb|Gripen belonging to the 7th Fighter Wing in Tynam]]
The incident further served to underscore a new regional imbalance between the two countries. Much of the Tynam Defense Area had been stripped of units in order to guard the Cryrian heartland from possible spillover effects of the Volscine Civil War, or even direct attacks following the end of Cryrian recognition for the Volscine Confederacy. By November, air and coastal defense units as well as major surface combatants at submarine squadrons based in Tynam had been redeployed. The defense of Tynam's airspace was thus left in the hands of the 7th Fighter Wing, while the RCRN presence had been reduced to small coastal combatants and patrol vessels. By contrast, the Älemsi National Air Force could muster over 340 fighter jets. Similarly, the Älemsi National Navy possessed 26 frigates in comparison to a total of 14 in the entire RCRN, as well as a budding submarine fleet. Even more importantly, the Maritime Infantry's logistical capabilities had been expanded to include several LSTs and an amphibious transport dock. Älemsi equipment at this time was still an eclectic mix of old and often outdated pieces from a variety of different origins, however the degree of the numerical imbalance quickly became a cause for concern in Leidenstad, particularly as redeploying forces to Tynam would weaken efforts to protect southern Cryria.
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While the 1 November Incident was in many ways reminiscent of the incursions of the Crab Wars, they set a new and far more dangerous tone between the two countries. The prospect of military parity raised the specter of an armed confrontation between the two nations, and the Incident is generally considered to be the starting point for the Second Yeralik Crisis.
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The Kapan Autonomy remained the strongest supporter for reclaiming Yeralik, and it quickly followed up the 1 November Incident by mobilizing its own Autonomous Militia for exercises along the western coast starting on 2 November. Simultaneously, after fruitless discussions between Ambassador Tugan and Foreign Minister Reitz, the Älemsi Foreign Ministry began to expel numerous Cryrian diplomats and agents. While these expulsions had begun prior to 1 November, by 2 November the Cryrian consulate in Zavital Khümüüs had been effectively shuttered.
Although the Kapan Autonomous Militia had only limited capability to threaten Tynam, its mobilization was a cause for serious concern in Leidenstad. The Kapans' willingness to act independently in the past created fears that the Autonomy might seek to create a provocation that would allow or encourage the Älemsi government to escalate the situation. The mobilization also raised the specter of a repeat of the First Yeralik Crisis where Älemsi forces occupied the disputed island. Under the Amrakh Agreement, Yeralik lacked any permanent Cryrian presence, and the only obstacles to an Älemsi landing would have been poor weather and the difficult environment.
[[File:SSI.jpg|thumb|Cryrian Special Naval Infantry unit on exercises in 2001]]
Following the mobilization, the Cryrian General Staff began taking the possibility of a conflict with Älemsi Negdel more seriously. It is believed that the CDF subsequently deployed elements of the Special Naval Infantry, or ''Särskilt Sjöinfanteri''(SSI), to Yeralik Island in order to prevent a repeat of the covert occupation witnessed in 1957. Such a deployment has never been confirmed by the Cryrian government however, and is only referenced in materials published by the Älemsi National Intelligence Service in 2003. It remains unclear how much, if any, of the estimated 450-strong SSI was moved to Yeralik, but such a presence would have violated the spirit if not the letter of the Amrakh Agreement, and demonstrated the degree to which Leidenstad expected an incursion.
==== Renewed Negotiations ====
Faced with the worst-case scenario of an uncontrolled escalation of the crisis, the Cryrian government secretly reinitiated diplomatic contacts with its Älemsi counterparts. It is thought that these early discussions were facilitated by the House of Tynam and the Gazny Autonomy, and soon became the focus of efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully. The talks took on a heightened sense of urgency for both parties when Khagan Ashighemur Mukhali of the Kapan Autonomy openly proposed that Älemsi Negdel press a claim not just to Yeralik, but also the populated islands of Juha, Kalle, and Baltu. These regions contained roughly half of Tynam's population, including its second largest city. The Khagan's comments provoked an angry response from Leidenstad. It also garnered little support within the Grand Mazhilis, which was disinterested in pursuing such an expansive goal and wary of launching a campaign which would force a maximalist Cryrian response. Despite this, concerns grew when Speaker Nayan visited Zavital Khümüüs on 15 November along with high ranking cabinet members. Although Nayan made no public endorsement of the Khagan's statements, his visit was viewed as one of support, particularly as he dismissed the anti-war Foreign Minister Burim Battsetseg soon afterwards and ended the liaison program between the CDF and the Älemsi National Military. This decision along with the return of Cryrian military activity to Yeralik Island marked the ''de facto'' demise of the Amrakh Agreement.
By 16 November the Älemsi National Military had begun a general mobilization and began federalizing the Autonomous Militias. This was the first time in Älemsi history that the militias had been federalized outside of preplanned exercises. On 17 November, news outlets began to report that the Älemsi National Military was requisitioning medical supplies from hospitals in Zavital Khümüüs. The Cryrian Defense Forces responded with their own exercises in Tynam.
A number of Cryrian reservists reportedly received notifications to update their contact information and personal details with the Ministry of Defense, but this was later claimed to be part of a regular periodic process conducted by the Directorate of Personnel.
As the crisis reached its height, the Cryrian Säkerhetspolisen launched Operation Strålkastare targeting Älemsi intelligence gathering networks within the Kingdom. News of Cryrian counterintelligence operations reached the public sphere on 17 November when the Cryrian Foreign Ministry expelled 21 diplomatic staff from the Älemsi embassy in Leidenstad and the consulate in Tynam. Official Cryrian statements at the time indicated that these expulsions were retaliation for the earlier removal of Cryrian diplomats from Zavital Khümüüs, but several independent analysts later suggested that the staff in question had been targeted for their links to Älemsi intelligence agencies. The SÄPO is believed to have also launched broader counterintelligence actions against suspected Älemsi networks inside Cryria at this time. According to the agency's reporting, the SÄPO successfully dismantled several Älemsi-backed groups which had been tasked with targeting industry and infrastructure across the Kingdom in the event of war. These efforts extended into the CDF itself, where the SÄPO's targeting of Älemsi and Älemsi-origin personnel later became a source of controversy.
=== Fall of the Nayan Speakership ===
Speaker Nayan's implied approval of Mukhali's desire to expand Älemsi claims across northern Tynam widened existing schisms within Älemsi society and government surrounding any potential conflict. Älemsi war planning had previously called for the rapid seizure of Yeralik island as well as its two populated neighbors, Kalle and Juha. However, the latter two territories were to be used as bargaining chips to bring a negotiated end to the conflict, and planned Älemsi operations after the initial offensive would have primarily sought to attrit Cryrian forces in southern Tynam while disrupting CDF efforts to regroup and reinforce in the region. However, suggestions that Älemsi Negdel's primary goals now included the annexation of Kalle and Juha undermined their value as negotiating pieces, and precluded the use of this planned exit strategy from the war. Proposals to further extend the seizure of territory to Baltu only served to escalate these concerns. There were also significant doubts within Älemsi military leadership as to whether their armed forces could accomplish the formidable task of seizing the large island, which was also home to Tynam's second largest city.
Nayan had deliberately avoided making a firm commitment on extending Älemsi claims in the region, but this strategy created issues of its own as it generated uncertainty within the Älemsi political and military sphere. His government's perceived evasiveness on the topic served to further sap confidence even among his main backers in the Grand Mazhilis. Among them was Amrakh Ajai, who viciously attacked Nayan during a parliamentary session:{{quote|Under the Speaker's leadership we have begun to experience mission creep before the mission has even begun. What began as an effort to utilize diplomatic pressure to restore Älemsi sovereignty over Yeralik Island has escalated into a planned military expedition that involves the entirety of the Tynam Archipelago and would see all of Älemsi spill its blood to fulfill the Kapan Autonomy's private vendettas. This Speakership is asking for Älemsi lives while refusing to properly clarify its aims, and I must now also wonder what element of surprise remains to us in this matter?}}All of this led to increasingly open acrimony within the Älemsi government, largely spearheaded by the powerful Amrakh and Gazny Autonomies who stood to suffer economically in the event of a prolonged conflict. Matters came to a head on 28 November when former Foreign Minister Altan Battsetseg initiated a vote of no-confidence that garnered thirty supporting votes out of a total of forty-two seats in the Grand Mazhilis. Nayan was accordingly displaced from the Speakership and quickly replaced by Battsetseg.
=== The Solstice Accords ===
Although Battsetseg was widely viewed as a moderate on the Yeralik issue and did ease official Älemsi rhetoric after taking power, he also maintained the military mobilization and other hardline stances he had inherited. This was understood to be a negotiating tactic to compel Leidenstad to follow through on secret discussions it had previously held. Although little regarding these discussions has been made public, they are thought to form the baseline of the Solstice Accords which brought the Northern Waters Dispute to a close.
Signed in Tynam on the winter solstice, the Accords resolved most of the key issues between the two nations. While they included mutual recognition of Yeralik Island as Cryrian territory, the Accords also gave the Älemsi government ownership of the Adya Shrine. While not officially Älemsi territory, the Älemsi government is allowed to post unarmed caretakers to the shrine which enjoys certain extraterritorial rights. Access to the shrine is guaranteed for both Cryrian and Älemsi citizens, the latter of which may travel freely to Yeralik without a visa or other prior authorization by the Cryrian government. Stipulations from the earlier Amrakh Agreement which banned any form of construction or military presence on the Island were once again implemented, and to date the only permanent dwelling on Yeralik is a small residence for the shrine's caretakers. The final status of both the Adya Shrine and Yeralik Island allowed the Cryrian government to sign the Accords without fear of violating the 1929 Constitution or causing large-scale public backlash, as no true transfer of territory took place. Similarly, by effectively securing the Adya Shrine the new Älemsi government was able to assuage the religious concerns of its own population, and support from religious leaders such as the Yul of Yul proved vital for the government's success and the signing of the Accords.
Beyond Yeralik, the Solstice Accords also redrew the maritime boundaries between Tynam and the Amrakh Autonomy. The new boundaries discarded old colonial-era agreements and established EEZs based on current international conventions, which heavily favored the Kapan Autonomy and provided it with key waters for fishing and oil extraction. While Kapan leaders had previously taken hardline positions against Leidenstad and were among Nayan's final supporters, these concessions allowed Battsetseg's Speakership to establish vital rapport with Zavital Khümüüs and it successfully precluded Kapan efforts to undermine the new agreement. Waters accorded to Yeralik Island remained under Cryrian jurisdiction, and previous agreements to split the king crab catches from the island were not renewed due to the conflicts and enforcement difficulties they had generated.
The Solstice Accords also revived a previously agreed upon sale of Cryrian CDU reactors to Älemsi Negdel. The reactors had already been paid for, but delivery had stalled under the Marlberg Government, a fact which had drawn significant ire from the Älemsi public. The reactors now came with generous technology transfer agreements, and were a key concession that won support from the Amrakh Autonomy. A range of Cryrian economic barriers were also lowered under the Accords, and the military liaison office established by the Amrakh Agreement was restored.
It is thought that the Accords also contained a secret clause regarding the Cryrian nuclear weapons program, which had begun as a reaction to the collapse of Volscina and had served as a motivating factor for the Nayan Speakership's hostility towards Leidenstad. However, the existence of this program or any agreements relating to it have never been acknowledged by the Cryrian government. Nor did any such agreement halt the development of Cryrian nuclear weapons, as the Fara Incident took place some three months later.
== Aftermath ==
The Northern Waters Dispute spanned over the course of a century and involved multiple diplomatic crises, economic conflicts, and near-miss military confrontations. The conflict prevented the complete normalization of ties between the two nations for much of the 20th century, and its sudden revival with the Second Yeralik Crisis served to undo much of the rapprochement that had been achieved throughout the 1990s. Nevertheless, the compromises within the Solstice Accords are thought to have brought the long-running dispute to a permanent end, as it nullified many of the economic and religious contentions at the heart of the matter.
Relations between the two governments remained rocky throughout the rest of the 2000s, and many hardline elements in Cryria reacted poorly to the concessions made. Similarly, the Battsetseg was later forced to contend with accusations of collaboration as rumors of his secret dealings with Leidenstad circulated. However, the concessions made in the Accords had garnered the support of key Autonomies in the Negdel, thus ensuring that both it and Battsetseg remained in place. Similarly, there was little appetite in Cryria to force a revision to the Accords while the crisis on Mainland Novaris persisted. Any remaining Älemsi desire to reclaim Yeralik in full similarly dissipated as the window of opportunity offered by the period of Cryrian weakness passed.
Thus, the Accords remained stable and paved the way for a new rapprochement between Leidenstad and Amrakh Gazarv in the 2010s as economic ties improved. The two nations later reaffirmed the Cryria-Älemsi Treaty of Friendship in 2018 amidst the backdrop of the [[Ymirland]] Civil War, and both countries have since formed a range of political, intelligence, and military partnerships with each other.
[[Category:Cryria's Pages]]
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