Northern Waters Dispute: Difference between revisions
m
no edit summary
mNo edit summary |
|||
| (34 intermediate revisions by one other user not shown) | |||
Line 1:
{{RP award|Gold}}
{{Infobox military conflict
| conflict = Northern Waters Dispute
Line 16 ⟶ 17:
| map_label =
| territory =
| result =
| status =
| combatants_header =
Line 117 ⟶ 118:
| notes =
| campaignbox =
}}
under the auspices of the Chauşam Agreement. The failure of either governments to compensate them for their lost property caused significant resentment upon their return to Cryria however. Sensing a political opportunity, the House of Tynam provided support for thousands of returning Khulani, many of whom resettled in the Duchy and formed an important base of support for the continuation of other Cryrian claims in the region.
Line 318 ⟶ 320:
Despite the uncontested seizure of the island, the Älemsi government was caught off-guard by a strong Cryrian response. While Leidenstad was indeed undergoing political difficulties due to the fall of the Tomorrow Ministry, the Ministry itself had been a strongly isolationist force and the nature of its removal had strengthened the hand of more aggressive political elements who saw the crisis as an opportunity to consolidate power. The Cryrian government demanded a complete Älemsi withdrawal, and when this failed to materialize it severed diplomatic relations on 15 November. The Riksdag introduced measures to end trade with Älemsi Negdel soon afterwards. A naval task force also began to assemble at Cxolthe, spearheaded by the RCRN's two new ''Aisis''-class destroyers, and the Tynam Defense Area was placed on alert to interdict Älemsi shipping through the straits.
[[File:Aisis-Class.png|thumb|The ''Aisis''-class destroyer ''Bränning av'' ''Aisis'']]
The Cryrian reaction demonstrated to many of Khorghosun's supporters that his gamble had failed. To make matters worse, the powerful Amrakh and Gazny Autonomies both suffered badly from the loss of Cryrian trade, as unlike many interior regions the cities of Amrakh Gazarv and Gazny Khot both continued to rely heavily on the Kingdom. Tynam was similarly disrupted,
The Speaker, however, refused to withdraw his forces from Yeralik
▲The Cryrian reaction demonstrated to many of Khorghosun's supporters that his gamble had failed. To make matters worse, the powerful Amrakh and Gazny Autonomies both suffered badly from the loss of Cryrian trade, as unlike many interior regions the cities of Amrakh Gazarv and Gazny Khot both continued to rely heavily on the Kingdom. Tynam was similarly disrupted, but support for the embargo remained high. Further, the Autonomies had been caught off-guard by Khorghosun's decision to seize Yeralik by force prior to the completion of the necessary military reforms needed to compete with Leidenstad. The perception of failure and the direct damages done to powerful groups inside the Negdel badly undermined the Speaker's support. The likelihood that the Maritime Infantry would need to abandon Yeralik upon the arrival of the Cryrian force intensified demands within Amrakh Gazarv that Khorghosun back down.
▲The Speaker, however, refused to withdraw his forces from Yeralik, and Leidenstad issued a 72-hour ultimatum under a threat of war. Shortly afterwards, a vote of no confidence was started in the Grand Mazhilis which dethroned Khorghosun and replaced him with Amrakh Arik. Arik recognized the difficult situation his predecessor had left him in, but sought to ensure that the affair did not end in a potentially humiliating defeat for the Negdel. Gambling that Leidenstad might still be willing to offer some concessions in order to regain the Island without bloodshed, Arik's government opened negotiations with Cryria.
=== Amrakh Agreement and Aftermath ===
[[File:Lighthouse.jpg|thumb|Remnants of the Cryrian Lighthouse on Yeralik Island]]
The subsequent Amrakh Agreement saw Älemsi forces withdraw from Yeralik Island in exchange for formal Cryrian assurances that no permanent presence would be established there. The Yeralik Lighthouse was abandoned soon afterwards. Further, Cryria ended its economic and maritime embargoes against Älemsi Negdel, and further removed import restrictions on the Älemsi fishing industry. Both countries guaranteed each others' transit rights through the Northern Way. The previously suspended Zavital Agreement was also reimplemented. A military liaison program was established to oversee deconfliction between the two nations in the Rotantic on a continuous basis. Both sides continued to claim the island, but agreed that it would remain under Cryrian administration until a final settlement could be reached.
The Amrakh Agreement demonstrated a previously lacking degree of political deftness in Cryrian foreign policy towards Älemsi Negdel, as it allowed the more moderate Arik government to save face and thus remain in power. It further ensured that the Kingdom escaped a potentially painful conflict in northern Novaris. Khorghosun himself was found dead in his home a month after the Agreement's signing, in what is speculated to be an assassination to prevent his return to power. It remains hotly disputed as to whether he was killed by Cryrian operatives or his Älemsi opponents.
Within Älemsi Negdel, the First Yeralik Crisis had serious political ramifications. Despite having won some concessions, the Crisis was ultimately seen as an Älemsi failure born out of the premature initiation of an unwinnable conflict. The Gazny Autonomy's role in ending Khorghosun's speakership effectively ended its isolation in Älemsi politics as it now was able to find common cause with the powerful Amrakhii. Relations between Gazny Khot and
The First Yeralik Crisis was emblematic of the broader Northern Waters Dispute in that ultimately both combatants were either unable or unwilling to escalate to open warfare in order to achieve a decisive conclusion. Despite this, it was the closest the two nations came to war over the issue. Khorghosun's overthrow and death alienated the Kapan Autonomy from the Älemsi central government. The significant reduction in Kapan influence left Amrakh Gazarv free to pursue closer relations with Cryria, which it did at least in part to keep the western Autonomy in line. The Amrakhii-Gazny coalition ultimately proved to be a stable force in Älemsi politics, one that ensured Cryrian friendliness, kept the Kapan in check, maintained Älemsi stability and prosperity, and ensured that the Northern Waters Dispute remained frozen. Although the Dispute continued to be a sticking point in Cryria-Älemsi relations, the Amrakh Agreement made it far easier to ignore. Ties between the two countries continued to evolve and improve into a budding partnership over the following decades as both sides were incentivized to effectively work around the question.
== Second Yeralik Crisis ==
The decades following the First Yeralik Crisis were marked by an initially complicated but gradually strengthening Cryria-Älemsi partnership. The new government in Amrakh Gazarv was reliant on good relations with Leidenstad in order to keep the Kapan Autonomy in line, while the Cryrians themselves did not wish to see the return of hostile leadership in Älemsi Negdel. The creation of a mutually acceptable détente through the Amrakh Agreement marked the beginning of an economic and political partnership that culminated in the Cryria-Älemsi Treaty of Friendship in 1990. Both governments pursued a policy of neutrality in the Novaran Cold War and viewed a stable and peaceful northern Novaris as central to their interests. Further, both geographic and economic realities ensured a degree of interdependence between the two nations. Improved Cryrian ties also created an environment where the Kingdom could accept the Älemsi goal to establish itself as an equal military and economic power to Leidenstad. Indeed by the 1990s Cryria had become a major arms supplier for the Älemsi National Military, and the Negdel was viewed as an important bulwark that could maintain the stability of the Northern Way. Similarly, many in Tynam viewed a final rapprochement with Älemsi Negdel as an opportunity that would allow the Tynami electorate to break away from hardline Cryrian nationalists and instead safely pursue its desired goals for greater internal autonomy without fear of an Älemsi threat.
However, the Northern Waters Dispute remained a point of contention, even as it was increasingly relegated to diplomatic back-channels. As a part of the Treaty of Friendship, the Cryrian government had promised to reopen formal negotiations on the status of the disputed territories. This initiative subsequently stalled however due to Cryrian constitutional limits that prevented the cessation of territory.
=== Schauman Government ===
The 2000 elections brought the Schauman Government to power in the Kingdom's first ever Green-dominated coalition, and suggested that a breakthrough might be possible. Prime Minister Martin Schauman had been one of the negotiators for the Treaty of Friendship and sought to further strengthen ties with the Negdel in order to gain favorable access to the nation's massive but heavily restricted natural resources. The first year of the Schauman Government saw the implementation of a number of long delayed projects between the two countries. Most notably, the Cryrian government finally approved the construction of CDU reactors near Amrakh Gazarv, which would be the first Älemsi nuclear power plant. Construction had previously been stalled over fears of inadvertently transferring nuclear capabilities to Älemsi Negdel.
Schauman was also strongly in favor of returning Yeralik Island to Älemsi Negdel in order to finally remove a long-running obstacle, one which many in his circle felt had brought little gain to the Kingdom. Schauman wished to amend the Cryrian constitution in order to allow for the final transfer of Yeralik to Amrakh Gazarv, so that negotiations could be safely reopened on the subject. This move faced opposition from within his own government however, particularly from Foreign Minister Helena Reitz who could not be safely dismissed by Schauman without alienating his Social Democratic coalition partners.
=== 2002 Cryrian General Elections ===
Obstinacy from the Foreign Ministry and elsewhere in the bureaucracy pushed the Green Party into taking up a more public stance around the issue in order to rally support. Unrelated political issues led to a snap election being called in 2002, and the proposal to cede Yeralik Island would become enshrined in the party's manifesto. Although initially a minor point in the party platform and the election as a whole, it quickly began to garner attention when the Prime Minister directly accused members of the security and foreign policy establishment of seeking to undermine him.
Several reports issued by the Cryrian Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Ministry did in fact refer to public discussion around surrendering Cryrian territory as "Dangerous" and "Liable to undermine the Kingdom's security by fostering unrealistic expectations among our Älemsi partners." This conflict was symptomatic of the problematic relationship between the Schauman Government and Securitate, whose heavily conservative institutions had historically targeted the Greens and their political allies.
Indeed, Älemsi views around the Northern Waters Dispute were heavily influenced by the 2002 Manifesto. It was particularly noted that the Schauman Government based its position in the belief that Yeralik Island was "Culturally and historically inseparable from the Älemsi nation" and "Likewise fundamentally irrelevant to the Kingdom." The Green Party platform further noted that Cryrian maritime claims extended well beyond those that would be associated with Yeralik Island regardless under international customs, and were difficult to defend on both a legal and pragmatic basis. For many in Amrakh Gazarv, this was practically an official declaration of Yeralik's status and a representation of the Cryrian population's own desires. Further, Speaker Nayan had long maintained a close relationship with Schauman, and reportedly took the Prime Minister's claims of a meddling Cryrian civil service at face value. Thus, a view began to emerge of a popular Cryrian government that was prepared to cede Yeralik but was being foiled by the Cryrian deep state. It was expected that the elections in 2002 would strengthen Schauman's hand and thus lead to the return of Yeralik.
However, the unforeseen circumstances of the [[Arkian Civil War|Volscine Civil War]] soon threw Schauman's plans into jeopardy. The conflict erupted just before the election and threw the Cryrian government into turmoil as the economy all but shut down and a massive security crisis now loomed from the south. This fostered an environment where the Conservative Party was able to snatch an upset victory, and now formed a coalition with the Social Democrats that cut the Greens out of power.
=== Marlberg Government ===
The election of the Conservatives seemed to dampen hopes for negotiations over Yeralik, and the appointment of Charles Marlberg as Prime Minister effectively killed the plan. Marlberg had previously led the Hallström Center, a fiercely nationalistic wing of the Conservative Party. Marlberg himself had close ties to the Cryrian security establishment, which itself had been opposed to ceding additional ground on the Northern Waters Dispute. In Amrakh Gazarv, the sudden shift from the unprecedently friendly Schauman Government to the comparatively hostile Marlberg was considered a slap in the face. The way in which prospects for Yeralik's return had been snatched away at the last minute served to bring the dispute back to the forefront of Älemsi politics in a manner reminiscent of the early-20th century. Yeralik's renewed visibility in Älemsi Negdel rekindled old tensions between the two countries at an already unstable time in Novaris.
The matter was further complicated by the growing sentiment within the Älemsi establishment that the Cryrian Securitate had helped to engineer Schauman's removal. Documents released after the crisis revealed that officials as high as Speaker Nayan himself believed that elements in Leidenstad had been actively working to undermine any possibility of returning Yeralik to Älemsi Negdel, and that these forces were now in control of the Kingdom. Schauman himself later faced a SÄPO investigation regarding whether he had actively fostered this view after leaving office, but no formal charges were levied. Thus, a sense of suspicion towards Amrakh Gazarv and the previous government's pro-Älemsi stances developed within Leidenstad, and was only overshadowed by the crises generated by the Volscine Civil War.
However, measures taken by the Marlberg Government in that regard further raised Älemsi ire. Shortly after the elections, Älemsi agents confirmed that the Cryrian Special Materials Division had been directed to restart the Kingdom's dormant nuclear weapons program. This coincided with Älemsi fears that Cryria had come under the control of anti-Älemsi elements. A nuclear-armed Cryria would irrevocably ensure that the balance of power remained tilted towards Leidenstad and effectively destroyed any expectations of an equal partnership as promised in the Treaty of Friendship. For the Älemsi, a Yeralik that was under a Cryrian nuclear umbrella would further become completely irrecoverable. Despite these realities, Nayan's government did not move to publicize their knowledge of the nuclear program and instead sought to leverage it in order to both extract limits on Cryrian nuclear capabilities and concessions on Yeralik Island.
Although little has been released regarding discussions between Leidenstad and Amrakh Gazarv at this time, it is generally understood that Älemsi diplomatic outreach was initially not taken seriously by the Marlberg Government. The ongoing [[Charlottesborg Mutiny]] and economic crisis had taken over much of Leidenstad's resources, and matters concerning Yeralik were simply deemed a lower priority. This served to further irritate the Älemsi Foreign Ministry. Cryrian economic troubles created additional rifts when work on the promised Älemsi nuclear reactors was halted. This was supposedly due to supply chain disruptions from the war, but the fact that the reactors had been paid for in advance caused public outrage in the Negdel. Disruptions by Cryrian-owned flights due to Operation Caroline only created additional troubles in the relationship, while Älemsi overtures continued to meet an unreceptive audience.
All of this combined to create an image for Amrakh Gazarv where the powers now in control of Leidenstad were deliberately stonewalling their efforts, or were simply ignorant as to the severity of the situation. By November, Nayan's government had resolved to take more aggressive measures.
=== 1 November Incident ===
On 1 November, 2002, Älemsi [[Teancair Aeronautics TCN-05 Sáibhsiorn|TCN-05]] fighters penetrated the Cryrian Air Defense Identification Zone(CADIZ) around Tynam in multiple separate events. One aircraft directly overflew Yeralik island before being escorted away by Cryrian Gripens. In a far more serious incident, Älemsi jets appeared above the skies of Tynam itself before being intercepted by Cryrian fighters. Both sides exchanged hundreds of rounds in warning shots before the Älemsi aircraft departed, and flights to and from Gustav International Airport were temporarily halted due to safety concerns. The CADIZ had been a point of contention since its establishment in 1950 and had never been recognized by Amrakh Gazarv. However, the 1 November incident was the most serious case of disregard for the CADIZ, and was the first time in history that Cryrian and Älemsi aircraft exchanged fire as well as the first time that Älemsi aircraft entered Cryrian airspace proper.
The action was successful in that it immediately captured Leidenstad's attention. Älemsi ambassador Boroghul Tugan was summoned by the Cryrian Foreign Ministry in response.
[[File:Tynam Gripen.png|thumb|Gripen belonging to the 7th Fighter Wing in Tynam]]
The incident further served to underscore a new regional imbalance between the two countries. Much of the Tynam Defense Area had been stripped of units in order to guard the Cryrian heartland from possible spillover effects of the Volscine Civil War, or even direct attacks following the end of Cryrian recognition for the Volscine Confederacy. By November, air and coastal defense units as well as major surface combatants at submarine squadrons based in Tynam had been redeployed. The defense of Tynam's airspace was thus left in the hands of the 7th Fighter Wing, while the RCRN presence had been reduced to small coastal combatants and patrol vessels. By contrast, the Älemsi National Air Force could muster over 340 fighter jets. Similarly, the Älemsi National Navy possessed 26 frigates in comparison to a total of 14 in the entire RCRN, as well as a budding submarine fleet. Even more importantly, the Maritime Infantry's logistical capabilities had been expanded to include several LSTs and an amphibious transport dock. Älemsi equipment at this time was still an eclectic mix of old and often outdated pieces from a variety of different origins, however the degree of the numerical imbalance quickly became a cause for concern in Leidenstad, particularly as redeploying forces to Tynam would weaken efforts to protect southern Cryria.
While the 1 November Incident was in many ways reminiscent of the incursions of the Crab Wars, they set a new and far more dangerous tone between the two countries. The prospect of military parity raised the specter of an armed confrontation between the two nations, and the Incident is generally considered to be the starting point for the Second Yeralik Crisis.
=== Mobilization ===
The Kapan Autonomy remained the strongest supporter for reclaiming Yeralik, and it quickly followed up the 1 November Incident by mobilizing its own Autonomous Militia for exercises along the western coast starting on 2 November. Simultaneously, after fruitless discussions between Ambassador Tugan and Foreign Minister Reitz, the Älemsi Foreign Ministry began to expel numerous Cryrian diplomats and agents. While these expulsions had begun prior to 1 November, by 2 November the Cryrian consulate in Zavital Khümüüs had been effectively shuttered.
Although the Kapan Autonomous Militia had only limited capability to threaten Tynam, its mobilization was a cause for serious concern in Leidenstad. The Kapans' willingness to act independently in the past created fears that the Autonomy might seek to create a provocation that would allow or encourage the Älemsi government to escalate the situation. The mobilization also raised the specter of a repeat of the First Yeralik Crisis where Älemsi forces occupied the disputed island. Under the Amrakh Agreement, Yeralik lacked any permanent Cryrian presence, and the only obstacles to an Älemsi landing would have been poor weather and the difficult environment.
[[File:SSI.jpg|thumb|Cryrian Special Naval Infantry unit on exercises in 2001]]
Following the mobilization, the Cryrian General Staff began taking the possibility of a conflict with Älemsi Negdel more seriously. It is believed that the CDF subsequently deployed elements of the Special Naval Infantry, or ''Särskilt Sjöinfanteri''(SSI), to Yeralik Island in order to prevent a repeat of the covert occupation witnessed in 1957. Such a deployment has never been confirmed by the Cryrian government however, and is only referenced in materials published by the Älemsi National Intelligence Service in 2003. It remains unclear how much, if any, of the estimated 450-strong SSI was moved to Yeralik, but such a presence would have violated the spirit if not the letter of the Amrakh Agreement, and demonstrated the degree to which Leidenstad expected an incursion.
==== Renewed Negotiations ====
Faced with the worst-case scenario of an uncontrolled escalation of the crisis, the Cryrian government secretly reinitiated diplomatic contacts with its Älemsi counterparts. It is thought that these early discussions were facilitated by the House of Tynam and the Gazny Autonomy, and soon became the focus of efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully. The talks took on a heightened sense of urgency for both parties when Khagan Ashighemur Mukhali of the Kapan Autonomy openly proposed that Älemsi Negdel press a claim not just to Yeralik, but also the populated islands of Juha, Kalle, and Baltu. These regions contained roughly half of Tynam's population, including its second largest city. The Khagan's comments provoked an angry response from Leidenstad. It also garnered little support within the Grand Mazhilis, which was disinterested in pursuing such an expansive goal and wary of launching a campaign which would force a maximalist Cryrian response. Despite this, concerns grew when Speaker Nayan visited Zavital Khümüüs on 15 November along with high ranking cabinet members. Although Nayan made no public endorsement of the Khagan's statements, his visit was viewed as one of support, particularly as he dismissed the anti-war Foreign Minister Burim Battsetseg soon afterwards and ended the liaison program between the CDF and the Älemsi National Military. This decision along with the return of Cryrian military activity to Yeralik Island marked the ''de facto'' demise of the Amrakh Agreement.
By 16 November the Älemsi National Military had begun a general mobilization and began federalizing the Autonomous Militias. This was the first time in Älemsi history that the militias had been federalized outside of preplanned exercises. On 17 November, news outlets began to report that the Älemsi National Military was requisitioning medical supplies from hospitals in Zavital Khümüüs. The Cryrian Defense Forces responded with their own exercises in Tynam.
A number of Cryrian reservists reportedly received notifications to update their contact information and personal details with the Ministry of Defense, but this was later claimed to be part of a regular periodic process conducted by the Directorate of Personnel.
As the crisis reached its height, the Cryrian Säkerhetspolisen launched Operation Strålkastare targeting Älemsi intelligence gathering networks within the Kingdom. News of Cryrian counterintelligence operations reached the public sphere on 17 November when the Cryrian Foreign Ministry expelled 21 diplomatic staff from the Älemsi embassy in Leidenstad and the consulate in Tynam. Official Cryrian statements at the time indicated that these expulsions were retaliation for the earlier removal of Cryrian diplomats from Zavital Khümüüs, but several independent analysts later suggested that the staff in question had been targeted for their links to Älemsi intelligence agencies. The SÄPO is believed to have also launched broader counterintelligence actions against suspected Älemsi networks inside Cryria at this time. According to the agency's reporting, the SÄPO successfully dismantled several Älemsi-backed groups which had been tasked with targeting industry and infrastructure across the Kingdom in the event of war. These efforts extended into the CDF itself, where the SÄPO's targeting of Älemsi and Älemsi-origin personnel later became a source of controversy.
=== Fall of the Nayan Speakership ===
Speaker Nayan's implied approval of Mukhali's desire to expand Älemsi claims across northern Tynam widened existing schisms within Älemsi society and government surrounding any potential conflict. Älemsi war planning had previously called for the rapid seizure of Yeralik island as well as its two populated neighbors, Kalle and Juha. However, the latter two territories were to be used as bargaining chips to bring a negotiated end to the conflict, and planned Älemsi operations after the initial offensive would have primarily sought to attrit Cryrian forces in southern Tynam while disrupting CDF efforts to regroup and reinforce in the region. However, suggestions that Älemsi Negdel's primary goals now included the annexation of Kalle and Juha undermined their value as negotiating pieces, and precluded the use of this planned exit strategy from the war. Proposals to further extend the seizure of territory to Baltu only served to escalate these concerns. There were also significant doubts within Älemsi military leadership as to whether their armed forces could accomplish the formidable task of seizing the large island, which was also home to Tynam's second largest city.
Nayan had deliberately avoided making a firm commitment on extending Älemsi claims in the region, but this strategy created issues of its own as it generated uncertainty within the Älemsi political and military sphere. His government's perceived evasiveness on the topic served to further sap confidence even among his main backers in the Grand Mazhilis. Among them was Amrakh Ajai, who viciously attacked Nayan during a parliamentary session:{{quote|Under the Speaker's leadership we have begun to experience mission creep before the mission has even begun. What began as an effort to utilize diplomatic pressure to restore Älemsi sovereignty over Yeralik Island has escalated into a planned military expedition that involves the entirety of the Tynam Archipelago and would see all of Älemsi spill its blood to fulfill the Kapan Autonomy's private vendettas. This Speakership is asking for Älemsi lives while refusing to properly clarify its aims, and I must now also wonder what element of surprise remains to us in this matter?}}All of this led to increasingly open acrimony within the Älemsi government, largely spearheaded by the powerful Amrakh and Gazny Autonomies who stood to suffer economically in the event of a prolonged conflict. Matters came to a head on 28 November when former Foreign Minister Altan Battsetseg initiated a vote of no-confidence that garnered thirty supporting votes out of a total of forty-two seats in the Grand Mazhilis. Nayan was accordingly displaced from the Speakership and quickly replaced by Battsetseg.
=== The Solstice Accords ===
Although Battsetseg was widely viewed as a moderate on the Yeralik issue and did ease official Älemsi rhetoric after taking power, he also maintained the military mobilization and other hardline stances he had inherited. This was understood to be a negotiating tactic to compel Leidenstad to follow through on secret discussions it had previously held. Although little regarding these discussions has been made public, they are thought to form the baseline of the Solstice Accords which brought the Northern Waters Dispute to a close.
Signed in Tynam on the winter solstice, the Accords resolved most of the key issues between the two nations. While they included mutual recognition of Yeralik Island as Cryrian territory, the Accords also gave the Älemsi government ownership of the Adya Shrine. While not officially Älemsi territory, the Älemsi government is allowed to post unarmed caretakers to the shrine which enjoys certain extraterritorial rights. Access to the shrine is guaranteed for both Cryrian and Älemsi citizens, the latter of which may travel freely to Yeralik without a visa or other prior authorization by the Cryrian government. Stipulations from the earlier Amrakh Agreement which banned any form of construction or military presence on the Island were once again implemented, and to date the only permanent dwelling on Yeralik is a small residence for the shrine's caretakers. The final status of both the Adya Shrine and Yeralik Island allowed the Cryrian government to sign the Accords without fear of violating the 1929 Constitution or causing large-scale public backlash, as no true transfer of territory took place. Similarly, by effectively securing the Adya Shrine the new Älemsi government was able to assuage the religious concerns of its own population, and support from religious leaders such as the Yul of Yul proved vital for the government's success and the signing of the Accords.
Beyond Yeralik, the Solstice Accords also redrew the maritime boundaries between Tynam and the Amrakh Autonomy. The new boundaries discarded old colonial-era agreements and established EEZs based on current international conventions, which heavily favored the Kapan Autonomy and provided it with key waters for fishing and oil extraction. While Kapan leaders had previously taken hardline positions against Leidenstad and were among Nayan's final supporters, these concessions allowed Battsetseg's Speakership to establish vital rapport with Zavital Khümüüs and it successfully precluded Kapan efforts to undermine the new agreement. Waters accorded to Yeralik Island remained under Cryrian jurisdiction, and previous agreements to split the king crab catches from the island were not renewed due to the conflicts and enforcement difficulties they had generated.
The Solstice Accords also revived a previously agreed upon sale of Cryrian CDU reactors to Älemsi Negdel. The reactors had already been paid for, but delivery had stalled under the Marlberg Government, a fact which had drawn significant ire from the Älemsi public. The reactors now came with generous technology transfer agreements, and were a key concession that won support from the Amrakh Autonomy. A range of Cryrian economic barriers were also lowered under the Accords, and the military liaison office established by the Amrakh Agreement was restored.
It is thought that the Accords also contained a secret clause regarding the Cryrian nuclear weapons program, which had begun as a reaction to the collapse of Volscina and had served as a motivating factor for the Nayan Speakership's hostility towards Leidenstad. However, the existence of this program or any agreements relating to it have never been acknowledged by the Cryrian government. Nor did any such agreement halt the development of Cryrian nuclear weapons, as the Fara Incident took place some three months later.
== Aftermath ==
The Northern Waters Dispute spanned over the course of a century and involved multiple diplomatic crises, economic conflicts, and near-miss military confrontations. The conflict prevented the complete normalization of ties between the two nations for much of the 20th century, and its sudden revival with the Second Yeralik Crisis served to undo much of the rapprochement that had been achieved throughout the 1990s. Nevertheless, the compromises within the Solstice Accords are thought to have brought the long-running dispute to a permanent end, as it nullified many of the economic and religious contentions at the heart of the matter.
Relations between the two governments remained rocky throughout the rest of the 2000s, and many hardline elements in Cryria reacted poorly to the concessions made. Similarly, the Battsetseg was later forced to contend with accusations of collaboration as rumors of his secret dealings with Leidenstad circulated. However, the concessions made in the Accords had garnered the support of key Autonomies in the Negdel, thus ensuring that both it and Battsetseg remained in place. Similarly, there was little appetite in Cryria to force a revision to the Accords while the crisis on Mainland Novaris persisted. Any remaining Älemsi desire to reclaim Yeralik in full similarly dissipated as the window of opportunity offered by the period of Cryrian weakness passed.
Thus, the Accords remained stable and paved the way for a new rapprochement between Leidenstad and Amrakh Gazarv in the 2010s as economic ties improved. The two nations later reaffirmed the Cryria-Älemsi Treaty of Friendship in 2018 amidst the backdrop of the [[Ymirland]] Civil War, and both countries have since formed a range of political, intelligence, and military partnerships with each other.
[[Category:Cryria's Pages]]
| |||