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| after_party = [[Progress Party (MBE)|Progress]]
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'''The 2021 Great Morstaybishlia general election''' was held on Thursday, 1 April 2021, two years after the [[2019 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|previous general election in 2019]]. It was triggered following the
The Progress Party, which had led as a single-party majority government from [[2019 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|2019]], was defending its overall majority of 6 seats after [[Prime Ministers of Great Morstaybishlia|Prime Minister]] [[Franklin Barvata]] removed the Whip from 6 Valerian Progress MPs. The official opposition was led by [[Benjamin Wardola]].
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The governing Progress Party remained the largest single party in the House of Representatives but lost its small overall majority, instead relying on an 11 seat working majority after a net loss of 47. A total of 54 MPs within the Progress Party identified with the Valerian Progress faction and Barvata signed a special arrangement with their leader, [[Nellie Hermin]], on the basis that South Staynes be allowed three votes; one for independence, and if that failed, one to hold a name referendum and another for a devolution referendum. Progress lost seats in the Marislia region but gained many seats in Jusdelva for the first time. The [[Podites|Principles]] won 600 seats, their lowest since the [[1998 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|1998 general election]]. The [[Marislian Independence Party]] (MARIP) made a net gain of 83 seats and won 3.5% of the MBE (translating to 39.45% of the popular vote in Marislia), resulting in 89 out of 155 seats won in Marislia. The [[Civic Party (MBE)|Civic Party]] improved their vote share to 22.9% and won 205 seats, a net gain of 58 since the last election and the most amount of seats they have held since [[2005 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|2005]]. The [[MBE Liberals|Liberal Party]] won 14 seats, a net loss of 13 seats. The [[Green Alliance MBE|Greens]] lost 9 of their 11 seats that they gained and entered parliament with for the first time in 2019.
The [[Jusdelvic Unionist Party]] (JUP) won 15 of their 33 seats, facing losses to all three major parties, all of which seats won from metropolitan Morstaybishlian parties for the first time. The election saw a trend where minor parties saw decline, besides both the [[Marislian Independence Party|MARIP]], which gained the most seats of any independence party in any general election in Morstaybishlian history; and [[Jūs Herekore]] which gained one seat in the Western Outliers Provinces. Due to MARIP being abstentionist and winning 89 seats, the working majority was significantly less than working majorities of the past, allowing Progress to govern without a coalition. This polarisation of seats to the bigger parties has been put down to several crises that has hit the MBE since early 2020, including the [[2020 Puntalian Crisis]], [[July 2020
== Date of the election ==
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! Seats
|-
| width="1" bgcolor="
|[[
|[[Franklin Barvata]]
| data-sort-value="2019-08-31" |August 2019
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| 1,722
|-
| bgcolor="
|[[
|[[Benjamin Wardola]]
| data-sort-value="2020-02-11" |February 2020
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| 1,716
|-
| bgcolor="
|[[
|[[Osbourne Saudaran]]
| data-sort-value="2020-05-09" |May 2020
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|[[Nancy Smith]]
| data-sort-value="2013-02-04" |February 2013
|Karagow, [[
| style="text-align:right;" | 4.9%
| style="text-align:right;" | 27
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| 42
|-
| bgcolor="
|[[
|[[Benjamin Wardola]]
| data-sort-value="2020-02-11" |February 2020
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| 19
|-
| bgcolor="
|[[
|[[Osbourne Saudaran]]
| data-sort-value="2020-05-09" |May 2020
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| 11
|-
| width="1" bgcolor="
|[[
|[[Franklin Barvata]]
| data-sort-value="2019-08-31" |August 2019
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! style="background-color:#cfb" | Party !! style="background-color:#cfb" | Donations<br/>(♅ millions)
|-
|
|-
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|-
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|MARIP|| 99.41
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|}
===Campaign background===
Since 1991 both the
During the lifespan of the 2019 parliament, only 12 MPs left their party, mainly due to dispute with the leadership. 5 MPs left the
===Policy positions===
===Party positions in the event of a hung Parliament===
The
The Unionists said they would seek out a formal coalition with the
The Greens initially supported the
===Tactical voting===
Under the [[Wikipedia:First past the post voting|first-past-the-post]] electoral system, voter turn-out (especially in marginal seats) has a crucial impact on the final election outcome, so major political parties disproportionately focus on opinion poll trends and these constituencies. In the early stages of the campaign, there was considerable discussion of tactical voting (generally in the context of support or opposition to the Anti-Terrorism Act amendment) and whether parties would stand in all seats or not. The possibility for a third proposed amendment that would pass should
A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the
===Online campaigning===
The use of social media advertising is seen as particularly useful to political parties as they can target people by gender, age, and location. The
Black Alert and the Joralesian terrorist attacks were the most trending topic for the top three parties, with over 45 percent of each party's online campaigning evolving around that. Next followed was the environment and taxation, as well as defence.
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===Television debates===
[[MBC]] aired a head-to-head election debate between [[Franklin Barvata]] and [[Benjamin Wardola]] on 27 March, hosted by Zoetta Ball. On 28 March STV aired a debate featuring representatives from
==Opinion polling==
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!Complex<br> <small>as of 15 March 2021</small>
|-
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| bgcolor="efa9a9" | {{center|1002}}
| bgcolor="efa9a9" | {{center|897}}
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|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|597
| style="text-align:center;"|671
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| style="text-align:center;"|555
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|97
| style="text-align:center;"|196
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|-
! colspan="2"| Overall result (absolute majority)
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
|}
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!Complex<br> <small>as of 25 March 2021</small>
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| bgcolor="efa9a9" | {{center|935}}
| style="text-align:center;"|877
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| bgcolor="efa9a9" | {{center|902}}
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|701
| style="text-align:center;"|676
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| style="text-align:center;"|609
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|67
| style="text-align:center;"|173
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|-
! colspan="2"| Overall result (absolute majority)
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''Hung<br> Parliament'''<br> <small>(
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
|}
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!Complex<br> <small>as of 27 March 2021</small>
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| bgcolor="efa9a9" | {{center|978}}
| style="text-align:center;"|802
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| bgcolor="efa9a9" |{{center|889}}
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|582
| bgcolor="add8e6" | {{center|725}}
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| style="text-align:center;"|594
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|114
| bgcolor="fdd99b" | {{center|192}}
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|-
! colspan="2"| Overall result (absolute majority)
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''Cons.-Dems.<br> (maj. 40)'''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
|}
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! style="vertical-align:top;" | Electoral <br /> Calculus<br /><small>as of 1 April 2021</small>
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| bgcolor="efa9a9" | {{center|863}}
| style="text-align:center;"|832
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|600
| style="text-align:center;"|575
|-
| bgcolor="
| [[
| style="text-align:center;"|205
| style="text-align:center;"|237
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|-
! colspan="2"| Overall result (absolute majority)
| style="text-align:center;"| '''
| style="text-align:center;"| '''Hung<br> Parliament'''<br> <small>(
|}
==Results==
Results for all constituencies were reported by the morning after the election. The
308 seats that had changed parties at the 2019 election changed parties again in 2021. 49 of these seats returned the candidate from the party that had held the seat in 2012. A third party took 99 of these seats: 83 were MARIP gains from from
In Staynes,
In Jusdelva, the Unionists lost 18 seats, their worse election since they entered parliament in 2019. This was mainly due to tactical voting in Jusdelva.
Reform MBE failed to win any seats despite its vote share increasing. They came second in three constituencies in Sani Bursil, contesting against only
===Analysis===
The result was noted for decreased vote shares for
Between 22% and 28% of voters said they were trying to prevent a victory by the party they liked least, i.e. voting tactically. Recommendation by tactical voting websites had some benefit for
The new Parliament reportedly had the highest number of openly LGBT MPs in the world, with 137
== Notes ==
|