2021 Great Morstaybishlia General Election: Difference between revisions

| next_year = [[Next general election in Great Morstaybishlia|Next]]

| party5 = [[JustelvardicJusdelvic Unionist Party|JUP]]

'''The 2021 Great Morstaybishlia general election''' was held on Thursday, 1 April 2021, two years after the [[2019 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|previous general election in 2019]]. It was triggered following the LabourProgress Party loosing their working majority.<ref>[[MBC]], 9th March 2021. ''Barvata calls an Emergency General Election after Anti-Terrorism amendment fails''. https://forum.theeastpacific.com/mbc-t3205-s120.html#p243439</ref>

The governing Progress Party remained the largest single party in the House of Representatives but lost its small overall majority, instead relying on an 11 seat working majority after a net loss of 47. A total of 54 MPs within the Progress Party identified with the Valerian Progress faction and Barvata signed a special arrangement with their leader, [[Nellie Hermin]], on the basis that South Staynes be allowed three votes; one for independence, and if that failed, one to hold a name referendum and another for a devolution referendum. Progress lost seats in the Marislia region but gained many seats in JustelvardJusdelva for the first time. The [[Podites|Principles]] won 600 seats, their lowest since the [[1998 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|1998 general election]]. The [[Marislian Independence Party]] (MARIP) made a net gain of 83 seats and won 3.5% of the MBE (translating to 39.45% of the popular vote in Marislia), resulting in 89 out of 155 seats won in Marislia. The [[Civic Party (MBE)|Civic Party]] improved their vote share to 22.9% and won 205 seats, a net gain of 58 since the last election and the most amount of seats they have held since [[2005 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|2005]]. The [[MBE Liberals|Liberal Party]] won 14 seats, a net loss of 13 seats. The [[Green Alliance MBE|Greens]] lost 9 of their 11 seats that they gained and entered parliament with for the first time in 2019.

The [[JustelvardicJusdelvic Unionist Party]] (JUP) won 15 of their 33 seats, facing losses to all three major parties, all of which seats won from metropolitan Morstaybishlian parties for the first time. The election saw a trend where minor parties saw decline, besides both the [[Marislian Independence Party|MARIP]], which gained the most seats of any independence party in any general election in Morstaybishlian history; and [[Jūs Herekore]] which gained one seat in the Western Outliers Provinces. Due to MARIP being abstentionist and winning 89 seats, the working majority was significantly less than working majorities of the past, allowing Progress to govern without a coalition. This polarisation of seats to the bigger parties has been put down to several crises that has hit the MBE since early 2020, including the [[2020 Puntalian Crisis]], [[July 2020 KaltarKaltariezh attacks|July]] and [[August 2020 KaltarKaltariezh police attack|August]] [[KaltarKaltariezh]] terrorist attacks, the [[2020 Aegis independence crisis]] and the [[2021 Joralesian attacks]]. For the MARIP leader, [[Romilda von Anzitter]], her party's landslide victory in the Marislian region led to calls for an independence referendum, to which the Progress Party had expressed its opposition before and during the election. Although nationalist MPs outnumbered union oriented ones for the first time in history, the unionist popular vote remained higher (60.5 percent). The Speaker of the House of Representatives Baron Munchiro was re-elected on Monday 5 April 2021.

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|[[MBEProgress LabourParty (MBE)|LabourProgress Party]]

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|[[MBE ConservativesPodites|ConservativePrinciples of Democracy Party]]

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|[[MBECivic DemocratsParty (MBE)|DemocraticCivic Party]]

|Karagow, [[DamezkadorRouanezkador]]

=== Justelvard Jusdelva===

|[[JustelvardicJusdelvic Unionist Party|JUP]]

| bgcolor="0087DC4f79ab" |

|[[MBEPrinciples Conservativesof Democracy Party|ConservativePrinciples Party]]

| bgcolor="FAA61A628c3c" |

|[[MBECivic DemocratsParty (MBE)|DemocraticCivic Party]]

| width="1" bgcolor="b22222d58800" |

|[[MBEProgress LabourParty (MBE)|LabourProgress Party]]

|ConservativesPrinciples|| 270.88

|DemocratsCivic|| 164.78

|LabourProgress|| 143.59

Since 1991 both the LabourProgress and ConservativePrinciples parties have been the two biggest political parties, and have supplied every Prime Minister since then. The LabourProgress Party had governed since the [[2019 Great Morstaybishlia General Election|2019 general election]]. In 2020 the LabourProgress government established Black Alert over Dalmaghar and the Marislian region, and in March 2021 over Joralesia, the latter two were ill-received in their respective areas. Following the [[2020 Aegis independence crisis]] where 5 LabourProgress MPs requested the government respect the Aegis Area Agreement 1977, which Prime Minister Franklin Barvata denied due to it being invalid. They were removed from the Whip following rebelling against legislation and the absolute majority was reduced to 904. When Barvata attempted to amend the Anti-Terrorism Act 2020 following the [[2021 Joralesian riots]], it was received poorly, including from members of his own party. After two failed amendments and one failed early general election, a second passed under legislation that bypassed the Fixed-term Parliamentary Act 1999 by only requiring a normal majority.

During the lifespan of the 2019 parliament, only 12 MPs left their party, mainly due to dispute with the leadership. 5 MPs left the LabourProgress Party and formed the Aegis Recognition Party. 4 MPs left the ConservativePrinciples Party and formed the Reform for Marislia Party. 3 MPs left the Unionists and became independents following an affair scandal with their chairperson MP Kassie Conbrie.

The ConservativesPrinciples and LabourProgress both insisted they were on course for outright majorities, and the DemocratsCivics insisted they would be in a far better position than they were in the 2019 general election. The DemocratsCivics said that they would not support Franklin Barvata as the next Prime Minister but could come to an 'arrangement' with ConservativePrinciples leader Benjamin Wardola in the case of a hung parliament.

The Unionists said they would seek out a formal coalition with the ConservativesPrinciples if they won. Jūs Herekore spoke about a possible [[Wikipedia:Confidence and supply|confidence and supply]] arrangement with LabourProgress if they supposed a Western Outliers Provinces independence referendum. The abstentionist MARIP refused to take seats in parliament and thus refused to answer their stance in a hung parliament.

The Greens initially supported the LabourProgress Party, but withdrew their support following LabourProgress's stance on Joralesia in March 2021. ConservativePrinciples leader Benjamin Wardola said that he would not persue a coalition with other parties because he was 'intending to win'. Barvata and the LabourProgress Party made no official comments, but the First Secretary [[Riannar Karmer]] said he 'can't see a situation where we would need to form a coalition'.

Under the [[Wikipedia:First past the post voting|first-past-the-post]] electoral system, voter turn-out (especially in marginal seats) has a crucial impact on the final election outcome, so major political parties disproportionately focus on opinion poll trends and these constituencies. In the early stages of the campaign, there was considerable discussion of tactical voting (generally in the context of support or opposition to the Anti-Terrorism Act amendment) and whether parties would stand in all seats or not. The possibility for a third proposed amendment that would pass should LabourProgress win a working majority was very controversial. The ConservativesPrinciples and DemocraticCivic Party came to an electoral pact against LabourProgress in over four hundred seats. The ConservativesPrinciples and Unionists made a pact against LabourProgress where they would not overlap in their seats.

A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the LabourProgress one. The websites did not always give the same advice, which was widely exposed by mainstream media.

The use of social media advertising is seen as particularly useful to political parties as they can target people by gender, age, and location. The DemocratsCivics had the favour of the news and is reported to have the most interactions, going above both LabourProgress and the ConservativesPrinciples, though LabourProgress managed to receive the most support from younger people.

[[MBC]] aired a head-to-head election debate between [[Franklin Barvata]] and [[Benjamin Wardola]] on 27 March, hosted by Zoetta Ball. On 28 March STV aired a debate featuring representatives from LabourProgress, the ConservativesPrinciples, the DemocratsCivics, Liberals and Greens. JNS aired a debate with the competing JustelvardicJusdelvic parties on 26th and 30th March, but [[Arran Samsey]] cancelled his interview on the same day due to a change of schedule.

| bgcolor="b22222d58800" |

| [[MBE Labour|LabourProgress Party (MBE)|Progress]]

| bgcolor="0087DC4f79ab" |

| [[MBEPrinciples Conservativesof Democracy Party|ConservativePrinciples Party]]

| bgcolor="FAA61A628c3c" |

| [[MBECivic DemocratsParty (MBE)|DemocraticCivic Party]]

| [[JustelvardicJusdelvic Unionist Party|Unionist Party]]

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 210)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 0)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 100)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 280)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 168)'''

| bgcolor="b22222d58800" |

| [[MBE Labour|LabourProgress Party (MBE)|Progress]]

| bgcolor="0087DC4f79ab" |

| [[MBEPrinciples Conservativesof Democracy Party|ConservativePrinciples Party]]

| bgcolor="FAA61A628c3c" |

| [[MBECivic DemocratsParty (MBE)|DemocraticCivic Party]]

| [[JustelvardicJusdelvic Unionist Party|Unionist Party]]

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 76)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''Hung<br> Parliament'''<br> <small>(LabourProgress 25 seats short)</small>

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. -6)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 146)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 10)'''

| bgcolor="b22222d58800" |

| [[MBE Labour|LabourProgress Party (MBE)|Progress]]

| bgcolor="0087DC4f79ab" |

| [[MBEPrinciples Conservativesof Democracy Party|ConservativePrinciples Party]]

| bgcolor="FAA61A628c3c" |

| [[MBECivic DemocratsParty (MBE)|DemocraticCivic Party]]

| [[JustelvardicJusdelvic Unionist Party|Unionist Party]]

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress #<br> (maj. 162)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 16)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. 236)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. -9)'''

| bgcolor="b22222d58800" |

| [[MBE Labour|LabourProgress Party (MBE)|Progress]]

| bgcolor="0087DC4f79ab" |

| [[MBEPrinciples Conservativesof Democracy Party|ConservativePrinciples Party]]

| bgcolor="FAA61A628c3c" |

| [[MBECivic DemocratsParty (MBE)|DemocraticCivic Party]]

| [[JustelvardicJusdelvic Unionist Party|Unionist Party]]

| style="text-align:center;"| '''LabourProgress<br> (maj. -68)'''

| style="text-align:center;"| '''Hung<br> Parliament'''<br> <small>(LabourProgress 35 seats short)</small>

Results for all constituencies were reported by the morning after the election. The LabourProgress Party remained the largest single party in terms of seats and votes but lost the absolute majority it had previously held. Due to extraordinary circumstances, the election did not result in a [[Wikipedia:Hung parliament|hung parliament]] as the seats lost by LabourProgress were balanced by MARIP gaining seats, and therefore held onto a working majority.

308 seats that had changed parties at the 2019 election changed parties again in 2021. 49 of these seats returned the candidate from the party that had held the seat in 2012. A third party took 99 of these seats: 83 were MARIP gains from from LabourProgress and ConservativePrinciples in Marislia.

In Staynes, KaltarKaltariezh and South Staynes both LabourProgress and the ConservativesPrinciples made a net loss of seats, the first time that had happened to both parties since the 1956 general election. The DemocratsCivics made net gains in all three countries. Marislia saw the biggest gain of any independence party since the 1960s. Lucia Malim and Aria Stemp were the only two of eleven Green MPs who retained their seats. The Liberals lost a total of 13 seats, and majorities in its remaining seats were greatly reduced. High profile losses include the seat of former Secretary of State for Defence [[Nickolas Frost]], who was the longest Defence Secretary ever from 2010 to 2019; former DemocraticCivic Party leader Jess Ghentley-Moss. The former DemocraticCivic leader Paddy Lukamortz had his constituency majority greatly reduced to 0.4 percent.

In JustelvardJusdelva, the Unionists lost 18 seats, their worse election since they entered parliament in 2019. This was mainly due to tactical voting in JustelvardJusdelva. LabourProgress and the DemocratsCivics made the most significant gains there and was the only one of four countries where LabourProgress and the ConservativesPrinciples made net gains. Jūs Herekore made a net gain of one seat and won the vote of nearly 70,000 people. Since MARIP won 89 seats, they confirmed it would continue its abstentionist policy, leaving no Marislian nationalist representation in the House of Representatives.

Reform MBE failed to win any seats despite its vote share increasing. They came second in three constituencies in Sani Bursil, contesting against only LabourProgress candidates.

The result was noted for decreased vote shares for LabourProgress (down 2.1 percentage points) and the ConservativesPrinciples (down 1 percentage point). The DemocratsCivics had a large increase of vote shares (up 3.8 percentage points) and themselves accounting for a 22.9% share of the vote. The top three parties held a combined 85.1% share of the vote, up from 84.8% in 2019. The result suggested this indicated a return of three-party politics caused by tactical voting. Over two hundred thousand more people registered and voted compared to 2019, with a higher turnout among younger voters. The swing to the DemocratsCivics were high in those seats with large numbers of young people, and the party did the best at appealing the working-class.

Between 22% and 28% of voters said they were trying to prevent a victory by the party they liked least, i.e. voting tactically. Recommendation by tactical voting websites had some benefit for DemocratCivics candidates.

The new Parliament reportedly had the highest number of openly LGBT MPs in the world, with 137 LabourProgress MPs, 104 ConservativePrinciples MPs, 61 DemocratCivic MPs and 3 Unionist MPs. For the first time the majority of elected DemocratCivic and MARIP MPs were female.